Pantheon Publications

24 June 2025 US Monitor The scope for Fed easing is much bigger than S&P PMI data suggests

• S&P reports brisk employment growth in June, but itsindex has been a very poor guide to payrolls since 2023.
• The output price index signals an implausibly large pick- up in core goods CPI inflation ahead.
• The unwinding of a one-time uplift to Social Security payments probably dragged on income growth in May.

24 June 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's economy sees a decent start to Q2, amid persistent threats

• A rebound in manufacturing and services lifted Mexico’s output in April, but momentum is weak.
• Consumption faces pressure from high rates, labour-market stress, and fading support from remittances.
• Colombia’s proposed ballot sidesteps legal processes, raising institutional fears.

24 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Solid end to Q2, but India's PMIs still point to soft-ish GDP growth

• India’s flash PMIs for June were robust, but note they remain susceptible to huge downgrades…
• …And they’re still down year-over-year in Q2, indicating big downside risk to GDP forecasts.
• Other details show waning optimism over the long run, and downward pressure building on core CPI.

24 June 2025 China+ Monitor Temporary export surge belies US-Korea trade frictions

• Korea’s 20-day export growth rebounded, likely supported by stockpiling as the US’s deadline nears.
• Shipments to the US, EU and Taiwan were the main drivers, while chip exports were strong in June.
• The trade-talk logjam continues; we expect the grace period to be extended, allowing more negotiating time.

24 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor PMI suggests no repeat of Q1's 0.6% EZ GDP growth in Q2

• The EZ PMI held steady in June, and averaged broadly the same in Q2 as in Q1… 
• ...But EZ GDP will not repeat its 0.6% growth in Q1; we look for GDP to stagnate this quarter. 
• Demand is recovering but, once tariff front-running ends, will likely correct; price pressures are easing.

24 June 2025 UK Monitor Slow growth and cooling price pressures, according to the PMI

• The PMI’s headline activity index rose in June but still signals unchanged quarter-to-quarter GDP in Q2…
• …But we think the PMI continues to underestimate activity and retain our call for GDP growth of 0.2%.
• The services output balance fell sharply in June, but that drop looks erratic; the MPC will wait for clarity.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 23 June 2025

A strong finish to India’s Q2, if June's flash PMIs hold

Global Datanote: Preliminary GDP, Japan, Q1

In one line: Japan’s GDP shrinks for the first time in a year, reinforcing the BoJ's wait-and-see stance.

China+ Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, June

In one line: China's commercial banks hold benchmark lending rates steady in June

Global Datanote: National CPI, Japan, May

In one line: Japan's core inflation surprised on the upside, but unlikely to sway BoJ into hiking mode

Global Datanote: Loan Prime Rates, China, June

In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June

Global Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, June

In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June

China+ Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, June

In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June

June 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

LEADING LABOR MARKET INDICATORS HAVE WORSENED…

THE FED WILL EASE IN SEP, BEFORE INFLATION PEAKS

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Recovery from March and April’s drops has ended already

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, May

• In one line: Hit by free-falling electricity production.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, June

In one line: Stable, but weak.

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, April 2025

In one line: A decent start to Q2. 

June 2025 - China+ Chartbook

• - CHINA’S FLAGGING GROWTH TO PROMPT POLICY TWEAKS
• - BOJ OPTS FOR PRAGMATIC MIDDLE PATH ON BOND-BUYING
• - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY

23 June 2025 US Monitor Consumption looks vulnerable to the looming real-income shock

• Real income growth has already slowed significantly, and will grind to a halt as tariffs boost consumer prices.
• Spending growth likely will soften too; households’ balance sheets are less supportive than post-Covid.
• We expect growth in consumers’ spending to slow just 1% by Q4, down from nearly 3% in Q1.