Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Tariff-funded tax cuts would simply give with one hand while taking more with the other.
- The net federal revenue available is likely to be just $200B, after accounting for the weaker economy.
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% rise in the March core CPI; it’s too soon to see impact of China tariffs
Samuel TombsUS
- Colombia’s disinflation resumed in March, and still-tight financial conditions will help it continue in Q2…
- …But the COP’s sell-off amid trade tensions will limit disinflation’s progress and hurt import costs.
- Chile’s inflation rebounded in March but will slow in Q2, although trade volatility raises new risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesian CPI returned to the black in March, as the power discounts expired; food will soon U-turn.
- The Philippines’ sales index continues to surge, but a number of consumer sectors are still struggling.
- Food inflation in Taiwan continues to rise, though some of this is exaggerated by base effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Slower growth, coupled with a stronger CHF and lower oil prices, will keep Swiss inflation down.
- The SNB is likely to cut once more; we now expect the easing cycle to end in June.
- EZ house prices rose 4.2% last year and will increase again this year, as lower interest rates fuel demand.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for a 30K month-to-month fall in March payrolls, consistent with a 6k fall after revisions.
- The unemployment rate should tick up to 4.5% in February, from 4.4% in January.
- Pay growth remains sticky; we expect February private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.3% month-to-month.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Recent falls in oil prices and shipping costs will offset about one quarter of the tariff boost to inflation.
- The $10 fall in WTI oil prices, however, also points to a 0.1% hit to GDP via lower business investment.
- The fall in financial wealth is consistent with households’ spending undershooting its trend by 0.7%.
Samuel TombsUS
- A muted tariff hit masks deeper vulnerabilities in trade exposure, export composition and market volatility.
- Central banks will shift gear as the trade shock, falling capex and weak demand cloud the outlook.
- Peru’s disinflation is on track, but the trade war is a threat to the relatively benign outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Seasonally adjusting Vietnam’s quirky GDP data shows that growth improved further in Q1, to 7.3%…
- …But a sharp fall by year-end to sub-5%—at least— looks inevitable, as US tariffs hit exports and capex.
- Outright deflation in Thailand seems set to take hold, again, bolstering our call for an April BoT cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Both China and the US are posturing as the trade war escalates and markets plunge.
- China’s National Team appears to be intervening, with limited success, to soften the A-share market dive.
- The PBoC is likely to cut the RRR soon to boost confidence; government-bond issuance will speed up
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The EZ is now likely entering a technical recession; the ECB will cut its deposit rate to 2.00% by June.
- Markets are pricing-in too dovish an outcome for the ECB; the bank will struggle to push rates below 2%.
- The economy is facing the trade shock in decent shape and fiscal stimulus still pose upside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We still think tariffs will be stagflationary eventually, as countries retaliate and boost government spending.
- But the balance of risks has shifted to recession after President Trump doubled down over the weekend.
- We cut 2025 GDP growth to 0.7% but leave our rate forecasts unchanged, waiting for clarity on headlines.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Rebounding as expected; will global trade war hurt consumers?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German industry likely had a great Q1, but what awaits in Q2?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China's foreign reserves excluding valuation effects fell
Japan's real wage decline hurts consumption
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.
Samuel TombsGlobal
Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Jobs market passes the worst as prices and wages prove persistent.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strengthening domestic spending can cushion the tariff blow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The Construction sector will continue to recover as planning reforms and Government spending boost sentiment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
