Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- Banxico cut, but one dissenting vote signals caution as inflation expectations drift further from the target.
- Forward guidance was softer; the Board dropped the reference to steady cuts, indicating a possible pause.
- Weak domestic demand supports disinflation; real rates remain well above neutral.
- We no longer expect the SBV to restart cuts, with the worst-case tariff scenario looking less likely…
- …Plus, credit growth is already soaring and the authorities won’t want to risk rocking the VND further.
- Philippine household savings recovered more substantially in 2024, but the Covid hole remains huge.
- The fall in Tokyo inflation in June was largely due to energy subsidies kicking in again.
- The BoJ will probably stay put on interest rates, given sluggish growth and trade risks...
- ...Assuming oil prices are reasonably well behaved; markets appear sanguine about geopolitical risk.
- French and Spanish headline inflation rose in June, pointing to upside risk to our EZ call.
- We are sticking to our forecast for an increase in the EZ headline to 2.0% from 1.9%.
- That marks a small rise, which need not worry the ECB, especially given stable inflation expectations.
- We cut our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter from 0.3% previously, after soft data.
- Energy prices nudge up our inflation forecasts; we see CPI inflation peaking at 3.7% in September.
- We see payrolls and GDP rebounding, which keeps us expecting only one more rate cut this year.
THE RBI—RIGHTLY—ISN’T BUYING THIS ‘RECOVERY’
- …CRACKS SHOWING IN THE EXPORT FRONT-LOADING STORY
THE NEXT STEPS FOR THE ECB ARE FINELY BALANCED...
- ...WE STILL SEE A FINAL CUT TO 1.75%, SETTING UP HIKES NEXT YEAR
GDP on course for a misleading jump in Q2.
- In one line: Inflation eases slightly, but risks persist.
In one line: A fall after improving throughout Q2.
IMay slump brings sales back to reality.
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% decline in real expenditure in May...
- ...One-time factors likely drove the drop, but the Q3 outlook for real after-tax income growth is bleak.
- 3% GDP growth looks likely in Q2, as the unwinding of tariff distortions obscures underlying weakness.
- Banxico cuts rates, but rising inflation and Board split signal slower, more cautious easing ahead.
- Disinflation is emerging in Brazil, but policy is still tight amid lingering core pressures and fiscal uncertainty…
- …The Selic will likely be held at 15%, as the BCB sees easing risks outweighing fragile disinflation.
- Early national data suggest the fall in EZ consumer confidence in June was focused outside the big two.
- The details indicate that risks to spending in Q2 are still to the downside in France and Germany.
- Indeed figures show slowing wage growth in Italy in May, but a pick-up in France and Spain.
- In one line: Manufacturing orders fall in June but the worst of the tariff-induced slowdown appears over.
In one line: Unchanged at a weak level.
- In one line: Pausing, for now.
- In one line: Pausing, for now.
Inflation expectations dropping back, labor market still weakening.
- In one line: Benign inflation print supports a cautious Banxico rate cut.
