- Our bullish forecast for Taiwan’s GDP paid off for Q1, as growth jumped to 5.4% year-over-year.
- Exports surged 20%, driven by extreme front- loading ahead of tariffs set on “Liberation Day”.
- We expect this momentum to slow, as the front-loading inevitably fades in the months ahead.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- We now think EZ investment is falling, mainly due to sustained weakness in machinery and equipment.
- Leading indicators for construction and services capex look solid, at least before the tariff shock.
- Surveys point to downside risks for inventories in H1, but brace for significant volatility this year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect zero GDP growth in March as industrial production falls and service activity slows.
- Quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.6% in Q1 will comfortably beat the MPC’s projection of 0.3%.
- GDP growth will slow further in Q2-to-Q4 2025 as the trade war begins to feed into the hard data.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: GDP growth pick up in Q1 will prove short-lived as trade uncertainty hits.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Germany CPI looks softer than we anticipated, but core inflation rose.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Agricultural rebound masks broad-based weakness.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Agricultural rebound masks broad-based weakness.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Consumption resilient amid headwinds, but confidence wavers as external risks build.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Supporting our above-consensus EZ call.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Ignore the inflated headline, but households had a decent Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Growth slowed in Q1 after a strong H2-24.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Compelled by the US’ tariff war, and allowed for by a resumption of sub-1% inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Compelled by the US’ tariff war, and allowed for by a resumption of sub-1% inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Barely growing, and trade uncertainty could well keep it that way in 2025.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Manufacturing activity bashed by tariff war
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Manufacturing activity bashed by tariff war
Non-manufacturing activity slows
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Underneath the surface; a weak close to a robust Q1 for Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The BCCh holds fire, as global risks intensify.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
