Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- We expect CPI inflation to jump to 3.6% in April, from 2.6%, above the MPC’s forecast, 3.4%.
- We estimate that indexed, government-set and utility prices will add 120bp to April inflation.
- We see risks to the MPC’s forecast skewed upwards, as a raft of cost rises could prompt price rises.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- US - Inflation outlook little changed by China deal, but exports will be firmer
- EUROZONE - The US-China trade deal is worth less than markets believe
- UK - MPC preview: dovish shift, but not as much as the market expected
- CHINA+ - China considering a major overhaul of its housing-market model
- EM ASIA - Philippines’ Q1 wasn’t that bad but may be as good as it gets for 2025
- LATAM - Brazil’s COPOM sticks to the script but signals a long pause
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The April CPI report contained early signs of tariffs pushing up goods prices, with much more to come…
- …But services inflation remains relatively muted, and we think further declines are in the pipeline.
- The April NFIB survey points to much weaker capex spending and relatively subdued services inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
- LatAm will see muted benefit from the tariff rollback, as global demand and prices remain under pressure.
- The temporary truce reduces uncertainty but does not reverse regional capex and confidence headwinds.
- Chile’s disinflation is gaining traction, offering room for further monetary policy normalisation in H2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indian inflation dropped to a 69-month low in April; we now see a terminal rate of 5.25% for the RBI.
- Below-average food inflation looks set to stay, with this year’s monsoon season expected to be fruitful.
- Note that CPI has yet to benefit fully from the slump in global oil prices, implying huge downward risk.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China continues to suffer from deflation, amid falling commodity prices and trade disruption.
- Consumer core inflation remains subdued; producer prices for some export-related goods have fallen.
- The US–China tariff reprieve is growth-positive, but the outcome of negotiations remains highly uncertain.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Investor sentiment, measured by the ZEW, improved in May despite a fall in the current conditions index.
- Investor sentiment now points to a rebound in the PMI as markets forget all about tariffs.
- Near-real time data also signal resilience in the EZ economy midway through the second quarter.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The labour market is easing gradually, and vacancies suggest the market is now a little ‘loose’.
- But March and April look like the low point for jobs, with jobless claims steady and redundancies falling.
- Pay growth is stronger than slack suggests, and too punchy to deliver sustainable 2% inflation soon.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The inflation outlook is little changed by the China “deal”; less trade will be rerouted via lower tariff nations.
- The export outlook, however, is brighter, so we are lifting our 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1½%, from 1¼%.
- We look for unchanged April retail sales, but 0.5% gains in both sales ex-autos and the control measure.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Brazil’s headline inflation is stable, but services and food prices signal still-sticky underlying pressures.
- The COPOM will hold rates steady as inflation risks linger, amid strong demand and volatile food costs.
- Colombia’s inflation accelerated in April, challenging BanRep’s easing plans and credibility.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A temporary reprieve in the US–China trade war is worth far less than financial markets are assuming.
- Early signs suggest Mr. Trump will go hard on the EU, keeping uncertainty for the EZ economy elevated.
- Isabel Schnabel is coming out swinging for ECB hawks, but will her argument carry the day?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Volatility at the long end of the gilt curve will fail to deter the MPC from continuing QT from October.
- The level of reserves in the system is elevated, and rate-setters are keen to dispose of APF assets.
- We expect the BoE to reduce the pace of QT only modestly in 2025/26, to £80B per year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
ACTIVITY UNWINDING AS STAMP-DUTY COSTS RISE...
- ...BUT WE STILL EXPECT HOUSE PRICES TO GAIN 4% IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The housing market slowdown will be temporary according to the RICS.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Keeping ‘gradual’ guidance disappointed market expectations, but the MPC are on track for a couple more cuts this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Dovish DMP but the survey was run in the eye of the storm, business responses would likely be different now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Mismeasurement likely distorting the Q1 numbers; underlying trend solid.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Inflation steady in April, but underlying pressures persist, for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Inflation steady in April, but underlying pressures persist, for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Industry will likely support GDP again in Q2, but downside risks remain.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
