Pantheon Publications

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, May 2025

• In one line: Manufacturing activity remains weak according to the CBI, it will remain so for some time to come.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, May, 2025

• In one line: Inflation eases slightly, but risks persist.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, May 2025

In one line: The gift that keeps on giving to ECB doves. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK/NIM Consumer Confidence, Germany, June 2025

In one line: Still improving.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, May 2025

In one line: Downtrend continues as unemployment fears near Covid-time peak. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q1-25

In one line: Boosted by investment and consumption. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

China+ Datanote: National CPI, Japan, April

Core inflation ticks up after removal of energy subsidies

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 23 May 2025: Headline inflation flat, core inflation ticks up

Core inflation nudges up, after energy subsidies end

Duncan WrigleyChina+

28 May 2025 Global Monitor US goes after the EU; will it last?

• US- Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
• UK-Strong growth and inflation mean an August skip
• EZ-Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
• CHINA- Growth worries likely to delay the BoJ’s rate normalisation
• EM ASIA- BI’s easing cycle back in play, with 75bp more cuts by end-2025
• LATAM -Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead

ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

28 May 2025 US Monitor Business equipment investment set to fall sharply over the rest of 2025

• Core capital goods orders fell by almost 2% in real terms in April, the steepest drop in almost four years. 
• Surveys of capex intentions still point to further weakness in equipment investment ahead.
• The FOMC minutes will underline the Fed’s plans to wait for more clarity on the impact of tariffs. 

Samuel TombsUS

28 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's inflation slows in May, supporting a steady BCB stance

• Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, with transportation prices falling and only a modest rise in food prices.
• The strong BRL, falling commodity prices and softening demand signal continued disinflation in H2.
• The fiscal outlook is fragile, despite short-term gains, with rigid spending and political resistance to reform.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

28 May 2025 China+ Monitor China's industrial profit rebound, though uneven, has bright spots

• China’s April industrial profits ticked up a notch, helped by the consumer goods and equipment policies.
• But auto profits are still falling, despite rising sales, owing to fierce competition and excess supply.
• The tariff-war impact is likely to be felt in the coming months, hitting the profits of export sectors.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

28 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor ECB doves remain in the driving seat after soft French inflation data

• Weak French inflation data put ECB doves in the driving seat ahead of next week’s May EZ HICP.
• German GfK consumer confidence and the ESI were robust midway through Q2; what tariff shock?
• EZ wage growth slowed sharply at the start of 2025; we doubt it will fall much further.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 May 2025 UK Monitor The MPC will hit neutral soon if it keeps cutting Bank Rate

• Our high neutral rate estimate of 3.75%-4.0% is one reason we expect only one more MPC rate cut.
• Elevated inflation expectations, especially for consumers, point to a high neutral rate.
• Slowing disinflation in 2025 also suggests that Bank Rate is only modestly restrictive now.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

27 May 2025 US Monitor Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July's FOMC meeting

• Payrolls in the retail, wholesale and goods transportation sectors have leapt by 200K since November...
• ...These gains will unwind as goods demand slumps, but probably after July FOMC meeting.
• Tariffs of 50% on EU imports would boost the core PCE deflator by 0.5% and hit GDP by around 1%.

Samuel TombsUS

27 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's external balance improves, but growing risks cloud the outlook

• Mexico’s current account deficit narrowed sharply in Q1, thanks to resilient exports and remittance inflows.
• Financial inflows weakened amid US trade tensions, global volatility, and domestic political uncertainty.
• The proposed US remittance tax and economic slow- down threaten to disrupt Mexico’s external stability.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

27 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Retail sales in Taiwan weaken as consumers rein in spending

• Taiwanese retail sales outright contracted in April, due to a drop in discretionary spending…
• …Consumer confidence surveys are turning sour, which will be bad news for already weak spending.
• Malaysian inflation held steady in April; while low, it could be artificially depressed by price controls.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 May 2025 China+ Monitor Growth worries likely to delay the BoJ's rate normalisation

• Japan’s core consumer inflation ticked up in April, due to the removal of energy subsidies for households.
• The BoJ will probably hold rates steady to help growth, amid tariff uncertainty, and despite elevated inflation.
• Soaring bond yields, partly due to political risks, may yet force the Bank to intervene.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

27 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor 'Tariff Man' is back, and he's got his sights set on the EU

• A sustained 50% tariff on EU exports to the US would send the EZ economy into recession.
• The route to an EU-US trade deal is relatively easy, but the EU will respond in kind to US tariff threats.
• The German economy was in rude health in Q1, but trade uncertainty will now weigh on growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 May 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: strong growth and inflation mean no August rate cut

• Hard data defy weak sentiment, bumping up our Q2 growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter…
• …The uncertainty shock has faded, and inflation will likely stay above 3.0% until next April.
• So, we expect the MPC to skip an August cut, lowering rates only once more in 2025, in November.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK