Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- US - Will “supercore” inflation ever return to target-consistent levels?
- EUROZONE - Margin of safety in the EZ labour market growing thinner
- UK - GDP review: healthy underlying growth suggests resilient GDP
- CHINA+ - China’s shaky start to Q2 to put the focus on policy implementation
- EM ASIA - Thailand’s consensus-beating Q1 GDP provides no real comfort
- LATAM - Brazilian consumption still resilient thanks to temporary supports
- Current fiscal plans imply low-income households will be squeezed by policy in 2027.
- The President’s budget proposal entails more pain for households, to part-fund higher military spending.
- Congress will temper proposed cuts to nondefense spending, but households likely still will be worse-off.
- Primary sectors dragged Chilean growth lower in Q1, despite relatively resilient domestic demand.
- Higher oil prices now threaten inflation, household incomes and the external accounts simultaneously.
- Weak activity will likely keep BCCh cautious, despite elevated external uncertainty and inflation risks.
- Non-oil domestic export growth in Singapore smashed expectations in April, hitting 24.5%...
- …Thanks to continued growth in electronics exports, but also other random unexpected spikes.
- Malaysian CPI ticked up slightly in April, but the more important core inflation moderated.
- China’s tier-one cities are enjoying a ‘mini boom’, raising hopes that the end of the property downturn is in sight.
- But national housing inventories still have almost a year to go before they reach a sustainable level.
- Cities are finding new ways to unlock genuine demand, though developer funding is still under pressure.
- The EZ energy import bill is soaring and will soon push the nominal trade balance into deficit…
- …But the real trade deficit will likely be relatively stable as the volume of import growth slows.
- The hit to EZ GDP growth from falling net trade is over, but we see no strong boost any time soon.
- The sharp fall in payrolls in April looks misleading, as they are far weaker than surveys suggested.
- Payroll revisions remain predictable, and April should eventually show jobs little changed month-to-month.
- Falling jobs and dovish pay growth will keep the MPC on hold in June, but we expect wage gains to improve.
Rising mortgage rates and low confidence are stifling demand.
- In one line: External weakness and mining dragged GDP lower in Q1.
- In one line: Activity softened at the end of Q1.
- In one line: Activity softened at the end of Q1.
- China’s April data point to slowing activity, only partly explained by the global energy shock.
- Retail sales growth at 0.2% was the worst since December 2022, highlighting poor domestic demand.
- Investment is weak, though probably better than April’s figure—the worst since February 2020—suggests.
- AI-driven layoffs still look limited, but productivity gains seem to be limiting hiring in a few sectors.
- This drag on labor demand, however, looks relatively small compared to the broader AI economic boost.
- We still think AI is more likely to shift the composition of labor demand than depress it significantly.
- Government spending and resilient household demand continue to support activity in Colombia.
- Construction, housing and tradeable sectors remain weak, limiting productive-capacity growth.
- Persistent domestic demand reinforces inflation pressures and strengthens the case for rate hikes.
- GDP growth in Thailand rose unexpectedly in Q1, to 2.8%, but inventories hid a broad domestic easing…
- …We maintain our 2.2% growth forecast for 2026, implying a sustained slowdown to 1.0% by Q4.
- India’s scorching WPI print was no surprise to us, and we find much comfort in still-tepid WPI food.
- Simple as well as hybrid Taylor Rule models suggest the ECB will hike by 75-to-100bp this year.
- Our fair value models see sticky Bund yields around 3%, but fiscal stimulus looms as an upside risk.
- Our forecasts assume that the 2s10s curve will flatten as the ECB tightens.
- Betting markets give Sir Keir Starmer only 15% chance of being Prime Minister after September.
- So, rates markets have likely mostly priced in the impact of the Labour Party leadership changing.
- We estimate 10-year yields would rise another 7-to-10bp should Mr. Burnham win a leadership contest.
Thai growth sees a natural payback from the interim government pop
Analysts were also too gloomy on Singapore exports
In one line: April's weak economic data due to energy shock and severe weather
Supply-chain risks prompting a rush of activity and greater price pressures.
