Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- BI remained on hold for a seventh straight meeting; the consensus, like us, now expects a long pause.
- BI’s attention remains on IDR stability, for now, but the speed of the sell-off so far is manageable.
- We agree with the Bank that the IDR is looking undervalued; it should start to find its feet next year.
- The EU allows national governments to subsidise energy costs for energy-intensive industries.
- But it has not yet given member states permission to forcefully respond to the looming energy shock.
- Efforts to reduce reliance on energy imports will help in the future, not so much during the current shock.
- Rocketing motor-fuel prices, driven by oil-price rises, pushed inflation up to 3.3% in March.
- Core inflation slid by 10bp, but the mix of inflation was hawkish, in our view.
- Underlying services prices rose the most three-months-on-three-months in almost a year.
In one line: Expectations in April 2026 even poorer than after “Liberation Day” in April last year.
- US - Cooling rent inflation will overwhelm the energy price boost
- EUROZONE - Look past the noise in Iran for a simple path forward for the ECB
- UK - CPI preview 2: early Easter helps push inflation to 3.3% in March
- CHINA+ - All that glitters is not gold: China’s flawed Q1 GDP print
- EM ASIA - GDP growth in Singapore slows in Q1, but masks strong electronics
- LATAM - Brazil’s economy holds up, but growth is slowing and narrowing
- March control retail sales rose the most since August, despite the jump in gas prices...
- ...but spending is unlikely to rise further in Q2, as support from tax refunds and the weather fades.
- Kevin Warsh sounded less sure that AI adoption will make room for much lower rates.
- Consumption is driving activity in Colombia, but it is concentrated in durable goods and sensitive to rates.
- Industry and primary sectors remain weak, highlighting structural issues and fragile growth dynamics.
- Tighter financial conditions will weigh on demand, with the slowdown led by key consumption segments.
- The H2 oil outlook is still largely improving, but normalising food CPI remains the issue in India…
- …Reassuringly, inflation expectations are still subdued, and firms are set to swallow higher costs.
- Taiwanese export growth surprised substantially in March, with electronics still flying.
- Import growth likely peaked in late 2025; a slowdown will support GDP growth in 2026.
- The EZ nominal energy-import bill is now surging, but we think imports are falling in real terms.
- Low gas inventories point to upside risk to the volume of gas imports and prices.
- Payrolls were stable in March, despite the Iran war, once we adjust for likely revisions.
- Unemployment corrected for last August’s volatile rise and suggests the MPC was too pessimistic.
- Slowing pay growth was dovish, but PAYE median pay and surveys suggest the official data have undershot.
- In one line: Grim end to an already forgetful Q1; glaring war impact on fertiliser output.
In one line: No signs of Germany’s infrastructure spending spree before the energy shock.
- S&P 500 earnings expectations often are wrong-footed by big surprises in the economy’s performance.
- The earnings of large companies also have only a loose relationship with broader economic growth.
- The recent upturn in expected EPS mostly reflects booming AI capex and higher commodity prices.
- Core inflation in Argentina remains elevated, as indexation and second-round effects still bite.
- Temporary shocks are fading slowly as fuel, tariffs and food prices are feeding broader inflation dynamics.
- Policy credibility holds, but a high inflation floor implies a slower and less even disinflation path this year.
- We were correct about Singapore’s GDP growth moderating sharply in Q1; it fell to 4.6%…
- …The MAS increased the rate of appreciation for its policy band; it is rightly worried about inflation.
- Malaysian GDP growth cooled in Q1, as widely expected, with services slowing sharply.
- China’s LPRs and de-facto policy rate were unchanged in April, amid pressure on banks’ margins.
- Banks started a new round of deposit-rate cuts, given the liquidity glut in the system from weak loan demand.
- The MoF is offering ultra-long special bonds at record levels, taking advantage of the risk-averse mood.
- We still think the ECB will respond to higher inflation by tightening policy modestly over the summer.
- In the most extreme inflation scenario, the ECB hikes aggressively but also likely cuts next year.
- EZ construction output fell sharply in January and February, but likely rebounded a touch in March.
- PM Starmer is under further pressure following news that Peter Mandelson ‘failed’ security vetting.
- A leadership contest remains a distinct possibility and would likely increase the focus on debt sustainability.
- The war in Iran will likely lead to a small loosening of the fiscal stance, but costly measures will be avoided.
CONSUMPTION TO SLOW IN Q2 AS REAL INCOMES FALL...
- ...FOMC TO WORRY MORE ABOUT JOBS THAN THE CPI IN Q4
Malaysian electronic exports are down, just when commodities perk up
