Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Mostly base effects, the trend remains subdued.
- Spain’s budget negotiations are non-existent; another rollover of the 2023 budget seems likely...
- ...Still, its deficit will shrink out to 2027, and in 2025 be inside the EU’s 3% limit.
- ECB doves point to downside inflation risks, but we still think the Q4 HICP data will move against them.
- The next forecast round from the OBR will likely show the Chancellor’s headroom has become a £25B hole.
- We think the government will target headroom of £20B, requiring £35B in tax hikes and spending cuts.
- Stealth, sin, property and pensions taxes will fill most of the black hole in our view.
- China’s loan growth slowed in September, indicative of weak credit demand, notably among corporates.
- M1 growth surged, but this likely reflects the robust stock market, rather than domestic demand reviving.
- The PBoC is likely to save policy rate cuts to stabilise sentiment if US-China trade frictions worsen severely.
- Brazil — President Lula gains ground amid tensions
- Mexico — Trade, security and stability
- Chile — Conservatives hold ground prior to crucial vote
- Corporate balance sheets look healthy in aggregate; private credit is a small and stable part of the picture.
- Mortgage refinancing is continuing to reverse its mid-September surge; expect low levels next year too.
- The Empire State survey signals renewed impetus in factory gate inflation; fingers crossed it’s an outlier.
Rock-bottom response rate casts doubt over reliability.
In one line: Investors think things will get worse before they get better in Germany.
- In one line: Flirting with outright deflation, which looks likely in the next two reports.
- In one line: Weaking wage growth makes this a dovish release, but the underlying story is a stabilising labour market with jobs no longer falling.
In one line: Rising, but not the start of a sustained pick-up.
- In one line: Retail sales holding up given a tube shutdown and wet weather in September.
- We expect a 0.4% rise in the headline CPI—below the 0.5% priced into swaps—and a 0.3% core print.
- Core goods prices likely were boosted again in September by the tariffs, including new vehicle prices.
- Residual seasonality will lift services prices, but the rebound in airline fares is over, and rent is cooling.
- Core inflation remains elevated in Colombia, highlighting persistent demand across key sectors.
- BanRep is likely to hold rates as minimum-wage risks and inflation expectations challenge policy flexibility.
- Temporary price pressures lifted September inflation in Chile, but disinflation is likely to resume in Q4.
- India’s inflation gauges softened yet again in September, with food prices still largely sliding…
- …Housing inflation popped out of nowhere, but the fundamentals don’t support persistently big gains.
- We have cut our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts further, to 2.2% and 3.8%, respectively.
- US - What’s at stake if the AI boom turns to bust?
- EUROZONE - We’re lifting our Q3 GDP growth forecast for France
- UK - GDP likely unchanged in August as industrial output drags on growth
- CHINA+ - Renewed US-China trade tensions highlight fragility of their relations
- EM ASIA - A rude, if long overdue, awakening for the BSP’s talk of a “sweet spot”
- LATAM - BraMex inflation: diverging paths, same cautious central banks
- MPC doves will seize on weaker-than-expected pay growth, so we now expect a rate cut in February 2026.
- But the underlying story is of stabilising jobs, which will limit the build-up of further slack.
- Accordingly, we think the MPC will be limited to only one more rate cut over the next year.
- Sébastien Lecornu plays his trump card, but will suspending pension reform be enough?
- Mr. Macron will come under rising pressure to call new elections if RN continues to rise in the polls.
- The cyclical improvement in France’s budget deficit looks set to continue in H2 as tax revenues rise.
- The re-escalation of trade frictions highlights the lack
of trust between the US and China; more talks needed.
- September’s export rebound was partly due to base
effects, which mask weaker monthly momentum.
- The volatile nature of US-China trade relations still
poses a downside risk to China’s near-term growth.
- Consumers’ major purchase intentions have fallen sharply, signalling flat spending on durable goods.
- NRF and Redbook data point to a drop in retail sales in September, ending a strong three-month run.
- Most measures of spending on discretionary services have weakened, consistent with a lackluster Q4.
