- In one line: Rightly unfazed, for now, by the upswing in oil prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: COPOM surprises with a 25bp hike but signals a pause.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: COPOM surprises with a 25bp hike but signals a pause.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Japanese exports fall as US tariff hikes slam auto shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: A September cut is still on, but the ECB will end up regretting it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: A September cut is still on, but the ECB will end up regretting it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Brazil — Bolsonaro probe deepens, fiscal risks rise
- Mexico — Judicial reform starting to backfire
- Colombia — Violence, reform and fiscal crisis
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BSP cut rates by another 25bp, to 5.25%, while slashing its 2025 inflation forecast to just 1.6%…
- …We expect two more reductions by year-end, a scenario Mr. Remolona implied is on the cards.
- The CBC is not under enough pressure to consider a rate cut; the surge in the TWD could change this.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The SNB shied away from a jumbo cut, opting for a 25bp reduction for its sixth straight policy rate cut.
- The policy rate is now at zero; we doubt the SNB can avoid negative rates for long…
- ...We now expect another 25bp cut in September but think the SNB will be back hiking next year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC kept rates on hold in June, but one more member than we expected voted to cut by 25bp.
- Rate-setters left their key guidance paragraph broadly unchanged; “gradual and careful” remains the mantra.
- We still expect just one more cut to Bank Rate in 2025, in November.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Sticking to the gradualist approach, for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Sticking to the gradualist approach, for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Japanese exports fall as US tariff hikes slam auto shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Export front-running in Thai exports is still going strong
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai export growth soared to a fresh multi-year high in May, as the front-loading broadened in scope…
- …But short-term leading indicators are still weakening, further clouding the H2 payback story.
- Bank Indonesia went back to a pause after its April cut, but we expect 75bp in further easing in H2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The EZ current account surplus crashed in April, pulled lower by net trade in goods and services.
- Portfolio in- and outflows in the Eurozone remain strong, but both are now likely peaking.
- Final EZ HICP data leave intact yesterday’s forecast update, save for a small revision to inflation in 2025.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation fell in May, as the ONS chopped 0.1pp off price growth to correct for the error in April’s data.
- Headline CPI at 3.4% in May, down from 3.5%, would have been unchanged without the ONS’s adjustment.
- Energy price increases mean we now expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in September, up from 3.6% before.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Demand still falling amid high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
