Pantheon Publications

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 11 December 2025

BSP easing “nearing its end”, but we still see a terminal rate of 4.25%

PM Datanote: US Employment Cost Index, Q3 2025

Much weaker wage growth likely lies ahead.

December 2025 - U.K. Housing Watch

HOUSE PRICES FELL IN SEPTEMBER...

• ...AND BUDGET WORRIES WILL WEIGH ON ACTIVITY IN Q4

12 December 2025 US Monitor Weak October retail sales likely to set the tone for Q4

• We think retail sales dropped by a hefty 0.7% in October, dragged down by a big fall in auto sales. 
• A raft of indicators suggest that consumers’ spending will grow at a negligible pace in Q4. 
• The Thanksgiving week drop in continuing claims is a seasonal fluke; the trend remains upwards.

12 December 2025 LatAm Monitor COPOM holds as disinflation makes headway; is a January cut plausible?

• Benign inflation prints in Brazil strengthen the case for
  easing, yet de-anchored expectations force caution.
• Activity is softening without collapsing, supporting a
  gradual, data-dependent transition towards Q1 cuts.
• But external volatility, fiscal uncertainty and currency
  risks keep the bar to a January rate cut set high.

12 December 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview 2: headline falling to 3.5%, but services up to 4.7%

• A food-price drop and tobacco-duty base effects should lower CPI inflation to 3.5% in November.
• We are tracking a chunky hotel-price rise, while a large airfares base effect will drop out of the figures...
• …So, we look for CPI services inflation to increase to 4.7% in November, from 4.5% in October.

12 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor SNB stands pat; we still expect it to stay on hold until early 2027

• The SNB held its policy rate at 0% at its final meeting of the year yesterday, as widely expected. 
• Next year will be boring for Swiss central bank watchers; we expect no change in rates until 2027. 
• The SNB thinks policy is expansionary; it will likely hike next, in 2027, as inflation nears the 1% mark.
    

12 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor "End" to BSP's easing will come when rates fall to 4.25%

• The BSP eased policy further this month, cutting its
  benchmark rate by a further 25bp to 4.50%…
• …We still see a terminal rate of 4.25%; growth
  worries are likely to continue to outweigh CPI risks.
• Indonesian sales growth looks set to hit a 20-month
  high in November, but it may also soon hit a ceiling.

Global Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, November, 2025

• In one line: Inflation under control, opening the door to gradual rate cuts.

PM Datanote: Inflation, Brazil, November, 2025

• In one line: Inflation under control, opening the door to gradual rate cuts.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, October 2025

In one line: Italian industry will be back on track after stumbling in October. 

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, November 2025

• In one line: Signs of stubborn wage growth despite weak jobs are widespread.

UK Datanote: Final PMI, November 2025

In one line: Budget circus hits sentiment, which can recover now the event has passed. 

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, November 2025

In one line: Catastrophic PMI saying conditions are as bad as during a full lockdown is hard to take at face value, but risks clearly lie towards output falls now.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, November 2025

• In one line: Pre-Budget chaos drags on consumer spending.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 December 2025

A clear, but fragile, recovery in Indonesian sales growth

10 December Global Monitor The SNB won't budge next year, even if inflation fall, below zero.

• US - Consumer resilience is ebbing as year-end approaches.
• EUROZONE - SNB to stand pat despite fall in inflation.
• UK - PMI shows growth stabilising after Budget chaos.
• CHINA+ - China's Politburo focus on domestic demand and structural issues.
• EM ASIA - RBI resumes its easing cycle, but this cut will likely be its last.
• LATAM - Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite.

11 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Our nowcasts are in line with our forecasts for the big four

• The French and Spanish economies are losing pace in early Q4, according to the hard data.
• Italian data for October were weak, but carry-overs suggest a better Q4 than Q3 anyway.
• The spike in German wage growth was likely due to one-offs; it will pull up the EZ total.

11 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Equity Update November records, and cautious upside in 2026

• Brazil — Bull phase matures amid policy scrutiny
• Mexico — Underlying support holding
• Chile —  Testing resistance ahead of run-off election  

11 December 2025 UK Monitor MPC preview: cutting rates, and leaving the door open to one more

• We expect the MPC to vote five-to-four to cut Bank Rate at its meeting on December 18.
• Hawks will likely note supply-side weakness, and that the Budget raises medium-term inflation a little.
• The MPC will need to change its guidance for gradual further cuts as it approaches neutral.