Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Chile’s CPI drop strengthens the case for a July rate cut, as disinflation in key categories gains traction.
- Fading shocks and a stronger CLP support disinflation; BCCh signals rates are moving towards neutral.
- Colombia’s inflation has fallen below 5%, but sticky services and fiscal noise keep BanRep cautious.
- Another month of exports above 30% in Taiwan, as they fail to moderate despite our expectation.
- This will be good news for Q2 GDP year-over-year, which is highly correlated with exports.
- Food and housing costs are finally down consistently, helping to keep inflation below 2%.
- Net exports warn of a downside surprise in German Q2 GDP; we look for zero growth.
- Manufacturing and services are upside risks to Q2 growth in Germany; construction was a drag.
- The upturn in real M1 growth points to accelerating German GDP growth from early 2026 onwards.
- We expect CPI inflation to nudge up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in April, driven by food prices.
- An earlier CPI collection date than our assumption of June 17 would pose downside risk…
- …Clothes and hotel prices likely strengthened later in the month as temperatures rose.
In one line: Down sharply.
In one line: Another big increase, before the recent delay in tariff hikes.
- Capex rose in 2017-to-18 after the introduction of 100% bonus depreciation, but it was not the key driver.
- Tapering bonus depreciation in 2023 and 2024 left capex unscathed; firms are now worried about tariffs.
- Average hourly earnings growth is often volatile, but the recent slowdown has been flagged by surveys too.
- Mexico’s private consumption showed resilience in early Q2, but high interest rates weigh heavily.
- Capex continues to fall sharply amid trade-policy uncertainty and low business confidence.
- External demand remains the main support for growth, as domestic momentum weakens further.
- GDP growth in Vietnam jumped to 8.0% in Q2 from 7.1% in Q1, comfortably outstripping all forecasts…
- …But brisk export front-loading to the US will unwind shortly, especially with a ‘deal’ now in place.
- We have raised our 2025 GDP forecast to 6.9%, implying an H2 slowdown to an average of 6.4%.
- Japan’s wages took a big knock from a bonus plunge in May, as exporters’ profits were hurt by the tariff war.
- The headline large-manufacturer Tankan was oddly steady in Q2, despite the tariff war.
- Consumption still looks soft, despite one-off factors boosting May’s household spending data.
- The looming deadline for the increase in “reciprocal” tariffs has been delayed again, now to August 1.
- The upside surprise in German industrial output in May points to a better EZ print than we expected.
- EZ services had a rough start to Q2, but surveys have improved and point to a better Q2 than Q1.
- We expect May’s monthly payroll fall to be revised up by 77K, and June’s first estimate to show a 15K drop.
- Payrolls have gone haywire, while leading indicators suggest job growth is improving.
- Private ex-bonus AWE should rise 0.5% month-to-month as pay growth slows only gradually.
In one line: Still improving, and surveys point to a strong finish to Q2.
A few more months of modest Thai deflation on the cards
- In one line: Rising car registrations signals recovering underlying economic activity.
- In one line: The Construction PMI will continue to recover as tariff uncertainty fades and Government investment soars.
In one line: Another bleak construction PMI read.
In one line: Q2 was a quarter to forget in French manufacturing; Spain is looking better.
In one line: Poor, but falling turnover at odds with the surveys.
Philippine inflation still comfortably below the BSP’s range
