Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

19 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ surveys out this week will take comfort from tariff de-escalation

  • We look for broad-based strength in the surveys for May, but we think it will be temporary. 
  • The Eurozone’s trade surplus soared in Q1, boosted by tariff front-running in pharmaceuticals.
  • The EZ runs a deficit with the US in services, but a surplus if intellectual property is excluded.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 May 2025 UK Monitor Week in Review: Solid Q1, fading tariff drag boost growth forecasts

  • Strong underlying growth momentum and President Trump’s backtracking on tariffs boost our forecasts.
  • We boost our growth forecasts to 1.1% and 1.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, each up 0.2pp..
  • We see risks to the consensus, and the MPC’s forecast, for April CPI skewed heavily upwards.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, March 2025

  • In one line: Small boost from tariff-front running, which likely continued as President Trump pushed back reciprocal tariffs by 90-days.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GDP March 2025

  • In one line:Fading consumer caution will keep GDP ticking along.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, March, 2025

  • In one line: Retail finishes Q1 strongly, but headwinds still limit momentum.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, April 2025

In one line: The core remains soft, but surveys point to upside risks. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 May 2025 US Monitor Resilience in consumers' spending on goods unlikely to last

  • Retail sales held up relatively well in April, clinging on to nearly all their solid gains in March.
  • But sales volumes are likely to falter soon, as the wave of pre-tariff purchases unwinds in earnest.
  • A more substantial pass-through from tariffs to retail prices probably will soon weigh on sales volumes too. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

16 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Banxico sticks to the script; Brazil's retailers perform strongly in Q1

  • Banxico delivered another unanimous 50bp cut, to 8.50%, and pointed to more easing ahead.
  • Brazil’s resilient consumption masks mounting pressures from inflation and weak services… 
  • …Tighter financial conditions are also a drag, but retail and labour data offer cautious optimism.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

16 May2025 China+ Monitor Uptick in China's TSF growth masks weak underlying credit demand

  • China’s broad credit growth rose in April, driven primarily by faster issuance of government bonds.
  • The widening M2-M1 gap signifies persistent deflation pressure and subdued economic activity.
  • Uncertainty over the outcome of talks will weigh on the economy, despite the recent US-China trade truce.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

16 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss economy galloping in 2025, though growth is now slowing

  • Switzerland’s economy was on a tear before the trade-tariff shock hit. 
  • Strong growth is not inflationary, and is now slowing; the SNB will cut in June, taking rates below zero. 
  • EZ GDP was revised down in Q1 and will also slow ahead, but the unemployment rate will stay low.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 May 2025 UK Monitor A resilient economy heading into the global trade war

  • UK GDP was surprisingly strong again in March; the economy was ticking over fine ahead of the trade war.
  • We think the MPC is far too pessimistic in pegging underlying growth at 0.0% in Q1.
  • We raise our forecasts for GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, but risks remain tilted to the downside.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 14 May 2025

A larger-than-expected Ramadan bump in Indonesian sales that isn’t expected to last

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 May 2025 US Monitor How high will inflation rise in plausible scenarios for tariffs?

  • The current menu of tariffs would lift the core PCE deflator by about 1pp, mostly over the next year.
  • But uncertainties persist over the speed and extent of pass-through, and the tariff rates themselves. 
  • Ending exemptions and applying the threatened reciprocal tariffs could push core inflation as high as 4%.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

UK Datanote: UK Labour Market Data, March / April 2025

  • In one line: Gradually easing labour market justifies further gradual rate cuts.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, April 2025

  • In one line: Easter distorts the BRC, but look through that and retail sales volumes are still rising strongly.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, April 2025

  • In one line: Job and pay growth improve slightly as payroll tax drag eases, but the MPC downplay the REC now.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

Global Datanote: CPI, India, April

  • In one line: More food disinflation to come in May; the 2025 consensus remains far too high.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

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