Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: GDP, Chile, Q1, 2025

• In one line: Q1 growth solid, but momentum set to ease.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

20 May 2025 US Monitor How stimulative will fiscal policy be if the "Big Beautiful Bill" passes?

• The reconciliation bill implies a 1.8% boost to the deficit, relative to the baseline of a small fiscal tightening. 
• But more pay-fors likely will be added in order to pass Congress, and tariffs will offset most of the boost.
• Temporary and short-term jobs are holding up well, providing some reassurance about employment.

Samuel TombsUS

20 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead

• Brazil’s economic activity surged in Q1, driven by agriculture and resilience in industry and services…
• …Momentum is likely to wane as tighter financial conditions and global uncertainty take hold.
• Colombia’s real GDP rose strongly in Q1, thanks to domestic demand, but structural risks persist.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

20 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor US front-running boosts Thailand's Q1, but it's all downhill from here

• GDP growth in Thailand slipped modestly in Q1, to 3.1% from 3.3%, with exports giving a big cushion…
• …But our global forecasts point to goods export growth slowing below 2% by Q4, from nearly 14%.
• This will increasingly expose headline GDP growth to the broad-based sluggishness domestically.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 May 2025 China+ Monitor China's cooling due more to existing issues than tariff war, so far at least

• China’s April retail sales, investment and industrial production point to flagging growth.
• Policymakers saw this coming, hence the PBoC’s May 7 announcement of interest rate and RRR cuts.
• The slowdown stems more from existing issues, with the direct impact of the tariff war still emerging.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

20 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation is about to hit 2%; is that worth one or two ECB cuts?

• EZ headline inflation is about to fall to 2%, helping to get further ECB easing over the line, but how much? 
• Survey data continue to signal significant upside risk to food inflation; energy inflation will rebound too. 
• Services inflation will drop sharply in May but is set to be sticky around 3%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 May 2025 UK Monitor Immigration curbs will cut potential growth and lift inflation slightly

• New rules will cut immigration by 98K a year—0.2% of the population—according to government estimates.
• We estimate that the curbs will slow potential growth by 0.1% per year, raising the pressure for tax hikes.
• A greater sectoral mismatch between workers and jobs will likely result too, adding to wage pressures.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 19 May 2025: Broad cooling in China's April activity growth

China to stick to targeted easing, despite broad cooling in April activity growth

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 19 May 2025

Pre-“Liberation Day” anxieties were there for all to see in Thailand’s Q1

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, May

 Extremely low response rate and partisan divide raise questions over reliability.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, May

 Pointing to a sharp fall in new home sales & residential construction.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, April

Recent resilience unlikely to last beyond the summer.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US PPI, April

Pointing to a mere 0.12% rise in the core PCE deflator, and margin pressure for distributors.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales/Weekly Jobless Claims

Further weakness probably lies in store.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

EZ Datanote: Trade, EZ, March 2025

In one line: A new record high, thanks to tariff front-running by US firms.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 16 May 2025

Don’t panic about the continued ballooning of India’s trade deficit

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PM Datanote: GDP, Colombia, Q1, 2025

• In one line:  Solid start to the year, but risks loom.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

Global Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, May, 2025

• In one line: Banxico cuts again but strikes a cautious tone.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

19 May 2025 US Monitor April data consistent with consumers bearing nearly all the tariff costs

• April import price data damage the theory that overseas manufacturers will absorb some tariff costs.
• PPI trade services prices—gross margins—usually are revised up; retailers are planning June price hikes.
• Residential construction payrolls are vulnerable to a drop in housing starts; the market is oversupplied.

Samuel TombsUS

19 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Banxico delivers another 50bp rate cut amid weak growth

• Banxico cut rates again, but its tone was more cautious due to the recent uptick in Mexico’s inflation.
• Economic activity is weak, and inflation is within the target range, supporting the case for further easing.
• Argentina’s inflation slowed sharply in April, defying expectations after the FX liberalisation.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America