Pantheon Publications

5 May 2026 UK Monitor Forecast review: closed Strait and "active" MPC mean hikes

• The activity data since our last forecast review have been solid, implying little damage from the Iran war...
• ...So firms’ pricing pressure looks strong to us, and the soft data point to a quick passthrough of higher costs.
• We now look for two 25bp hikes to Bank Rate this year, with three cuts to come across 2027 and 2028.

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, April 2026

In one line: Prices index likely sending a false alarm.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, April 2026

Prices index likely sending a false alarm.

Global Datanote: Exports, Korea, April 2026

• In one line: Buoyed by rocketing chip exports

Global Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, April 2026

• In one line: Subdued, thanks to expanded childcare subsidies

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 May 2026: Tokyo inflation subdued; Korea exports surging

In one line: Tokyo inflation subdued thanks to expanded childcare subsidies;
Korean exports buoyed by robust chip sales

Global Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia, April, 2026

• In one line: BanRep pauses, but credibility questions linger.

PM Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia, April, 2026

• In one line: BanRep pauses, but credibility questions linger.

April 2026 - Latin America Chartbook

OIL SHOCK FEEDS INTO INFLATION, DELAYING EASING CYCLES

• DISINFLATION STALLS, CENTRAL BANKS TURN MORE CAUTIOUS

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP, Q1

Growth outside of the tech sector already was anemic ahead of the energy shock.

Global Datanote: Advance GDP, US, Q1 2026

In one line: Growth outside of the tech sector already was anemic ahead of the energy shock.

PM Datanote: US Income and Spending / ECI / claims

Spending temporarily supported by tax refunds; stagnation likely in Q2.

UK Datanote: UK Flash PMIs, April 2026

• In one line: Not as good as it looks, but the PMIs still say the MPC should worry more about inflation than growth.

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, March 2026

• In one line:The Chancellor will need to borrow more than expected in the upcoming fiscal year.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, April 2026

• In one line: Core producer output price inflation will jump in the coming months according to the CBI.

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, April 2026

• In one line: Higher inflation means consumers’ confidence will remain weak in 2026.