Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Taiwan’s export growth finally moderated in April, to 39%; adverse base effects have kicked in…
- …Q2 will also be plague d by the supply-side constraints that are showing up in the PMIs.
- BNM held the OPR at 2.75%; the Bank has little reason to panic when core inflation remains benign.
- A US delegation was already in Beijing last week, paving the way for a likely visit from Mr. Trump this Thursday.
- April’s rebound in FX reserves reflects swings in market risk appetite as the war in Iran continues.
- China’s MoF plans to issue a record level of Dim Sum bonds in Hong Kong to rebalance liquidity offshore.
- German industrial output is still trailing leading indicators; revisions or a rebound are coming.
- Nowcast models for Q1 GDP in Germany look strong despite weakness in industry and retail sales data.
- Industrial output in Spain jumped in March, helping production in the EZ as a whole to a small gain.
- The bar to the MPC returning to rate cuts, if oil prices fall, looks high, as growth and inflation are holding up.
- But a thin Iran-US deal, if signed, would lead us to shift to one or no hikes this year.
- Disastrous local election results for the Labour Party will keep political risk elevated
- In one line: Potentially the peak.
- In one line: Core inflation remains sticky, keeping Banxico cautious.
- In one line: Core inflation remains sticky, keeping Banxico cautious.
- In one line: No surprises.
- In one line: No surprises.
The main reason why the BSP should be reluctant to hike further
- The tariffs passed through fully to the CPI by March, but energy-driven goods price hikes will take time...
- Used auto prices and airline fares probably jumped in April, while rents likely rose at twice their trend...
- ...The BLS will use a calculation that will unwind its no-change assumption for rents last October.
- Banxico’s split vote highlights growing fears over persistent inflation and narrowing room for rate cuts.
- Weak growth and greater economic slack justify final rate cut despite elevated inflation concerns.
- External risks from oil prices, Fed uncertainty and MXN volatility dominate Banxico’s reaction function.
- Philippine GDP growth missed expectations in Q1, slowing to a new post-Covid low of 2.8%, from 3.0%.
- Public spending is reawakening but consumption matters more, and the outlook is still very difficult.
- We’ve lowered our 2026 and 2027 GDP forecasts to 4.0% and 5.0%, respectively, from 4.8% and 5.2%.
- EZ retail sales fell slightly in March; or did they? We think sales in Germany will be revised higher.
- Factory orders in Germany jumped at the end of Q1, pointing to near-term strength in industrial output.
- The EZ construction PMI sank further in April, but the survey is likely overstating the weakness.
- GDP likely declined in March, with falls across the board in the major activity components.
- We still expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Underlying growth likely held firm in March; a good result given the shock of the Iran war.
Too unreliable to bank on a labor market upturn.
Iran war ’saves’ Thailand from prolonged deflation
Already signs of an inflation squeeze on Philippine sales
Labor demand still trending down, implying March payrolls jump was just a blip.
- Oil consumption has risen despite soaring prices; goods producers are preparing for disruptions.
- Surveys point to a bigger rise in core goods prices than implied by the rise in oil prices alone.
- We still look for a further 75bp easing but we now expect the first cut in December, not September.
- Mexican peso — Resilient rebound as USD softens
- Colombian peso — Rally fades as policy doubts cap gains
- Chilean peso — Partial recovery as external issues ease
