Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: PMIs, Switzerland, September 2025

In on line: Rebounding, but tariff-sensitive manufacturing is weakening.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, September

• In one line: Food inflation is firming up fast, but core disinflation is a strong anchor.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, August

• In one line: Ignore the jump in the surplus; import demand is crashing.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, September

• In one line: A sturdy—but narrow—end-Q3 bump.

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision, September 2025

• In one line: Pause continues, but further easing is still very much on the table.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 October 2025

The RBI’s pause continues, but further easing is still very much on the table
A sturdy—but narrow—end-Q3 bump in ASEAN manufacturing
Ignore the August jump in Indonesia's surplus; import demand is crashing
Food inflation is firming up fast in Indonesia, but core disinflation is a strong anchor

September 2025 - Latin America Chartbook

LATAM ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS POLICY STAYS RESTRICTIVE…

• …DISINFLATION ADVANCES, BUT CORE PRESSURES CLOUD OUTLOOK

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, September 2025

Worsening job availability points to a further rise in the unemployment rate.

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, August 2025

Drops in the openings-to-unemployment ratio and quits signals slower wage growth ahead.

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, August, 2025

• In one line: Retail and manufacturing support growth, labour market improving at the margin.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, September 2025

In one line: Hot. 

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, July

• In one line: A collapse long in the making; still some way to go before growth falls back down to earth.

China+ Datanote: Industrial Profits, China, August

In one line: China’s industrial profit rebound lacks breadth, with only seven industries show accelerating positive gains.

2 October 2025 US Monitor Government shutdown makes Fed easing in October more likely

• The government shutdown will hold up key data releases and likely will drag on economic growth. 
• Another 25bp easing from the Fed at its next meeting seems like prudent risk-management. 
• The effective tariff rate has now crept up to just 12%, and a further climb is likely in the next few months.

2 October 2025 LatAm Monitor Global headwinds keep LatAm markets on edge

• Brazilian Real —  Gains fade after early rally
• Mexican Peso —  Resilient, but facing resistance
• Argentinian Peso — Volatility as political noise builds

2 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Still a matter of when, not if, the RBI will cut again; we look for December

• The RBI stayed on hold yesterday, but two members called for more dovish implied forward guidance…
• …Its latest GDP forecasts reveal no real faith in the stimulative impact of GST 2.0; we concur.
• Bank on ASEAN’s robust September PMI at your own risk, as underlying it is a very skewed picture.

2 October 2025 China+ Monitor Korea's export surge masks WDA slump; Manufacturing rebounds

• Korea’s working-day-adjusted export value growth fell sharply in September, partly due to base effects.
• Manufacturing activity grew the most in 13 months, but the US ‘chip content’ tariff renews uncertainty.
• We expect the BoK to cut rates by 25bp in Q4, once financial stability risk from the housing market lessens.

2 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Dovish decimals in the EZ HICP hide an overall hawkish report

• Decimals proved dovish in the September HICP, but the main message from the report is hawkish. 
• We still see EZ inflation above 2% in Q4, which would make it difficult for the ECB to cut in December. 
• We’re lowering our inflation forecasts slightly, but our baseline remains higher than the ECB’s.

2 October 2025 UK Monitor Gilt yields to remain elevated as political risk dominates

• Gilt auctions are still well supported, and financial conditions are orderly, despite high uncertainty…
• ...but yields will remain high as the MPC stays on hold and markets demand a premium for political risk.
• We expect 10-year and 30-year gilt yields to end 2025 at their current rates of 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively.

EZ Datanote: State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany

In one line: Risks tilted to an upside surprise in the CPI; jobless claims should fall back next month.