In one line: Stable, but we doubt the trend in claims is improving.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Jobless claims will be wild over the next few weeks; the underlying trend won’t emerge until mid-January.
- Leading indicators of claims are mixed, but claims are more likely to rise than fall over the next few months.
- The ADP is a deeply unreliable guide to the official payroll numbers; we recommend you ignore it.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Vietnam’s scorching Q4 GDP print is no ‘mission accomplished’; the result is somewhat misleading.
- Sequential momentum appears to have peaked in Q3, and the Q4 jump in industry looks fragile.
- The second half of 2023 benefited hugely from the initial—and likely unrepeatable—bounce in exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- German jobless claims fell less than expected in December, but we doubt the trend is improving.
- Employment growth slowed midway through Q4, and momentum will wane further in Q1.
- Nominal income growth is slowing, but real wage growth is rebounding as inflation falls.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- U.S. - Core PCE Inflation Likely will be Below 2% by End-2024
- EUROZONE- Rapidly Falling Inflation in Early Q1 Will Prompt an ECB Pivot in March
- U.K.- Forecast Review: CPI Inflation to Fall to 2% During Q2, Spurring Rate Cuts
- CHINA+ - China’s Property Sector is Barely Making Progress
- EM ASIA - What 2024 Has in Store, and Where We Could Be Widely Off Base
- LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: EZ manufacturing remained in recession in Q4; is the plunge in M1 fading?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Korean exports rise sharply on a WDA basis
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
The volatile Caixin PMI is more optimistic than the official measure again
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
The volatile Caixin PMI is more optimistic than the official measure again
Korea’s manufacturing activities steady in December
Korean export growth accelerates on a WDA basis
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: The H2 rise in food inflation is finally over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Entering 2024 with negative momentum.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Jump in Singaporean GDP growth in Q4 was powered by a rebound in manufacturing
ASEAN entered 2024 with negative momentum
The H2 rise in Indonesian food inflation is finally over
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Q4 GDP growth in Singapore surprised to the upside, jumping to 2.8%, from 1.0% in Q3...
- ...Boosted by a rebound in the manufacturing sector and robust construction activity.
- We will look to upgrade our 2024 forecast of 1.7% if external demand continues to hold up in Q1.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ manufacturing remained in recession in Q4, but global data point to an improvement in Q1.
- The slowdown in narrow money growth is easing, adding to upside risks for the composite PMI in Q1.
- Private sector lending growth slowed midway through Q4; it will slow further in H1 2024.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The December ISM manufacturing index likely fell, leaving it broadly in line with the cycle low…
- …But falling interest rates likely will lift capital spending and manufacturing activity in 2024.
- The Fed minutes are unlikely to reveal anything new, but we continue to expect rate cuts as early as March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
