Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Governor Ueda said yesterday he expects a moderate rise in underlying inflation...
- ...The BoJ’s base case appears to be a swift oil-price fall, with little effect on the long-term inflation outlook.
- But persistently sky-high energy prices would drive up food prices and could force an April rate hike.
- March PMIs point to a hit to activity in services from the war in Iran, but also upside risk to inflation.
- German industry is benefiting from front-running ahead of supply disruption in the Middle East.
- Inflation data will remain front and centre for the ECB, as the PMIs signal upside risk to core inflation.
- The PMI points to GDP growth easing in Q1, but still broadly in line with rate-setters’ expectations.
- We stick with our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% in Q1, but with downside risks to that call.
- The MPC will wait for more data before making judgements on how the war is impacting the economy.
In one line: Initial hit from Trump’s war is worse for EZ sentiment than his tariffs.
- US - How would the Fed react if oil prices soar to $150?
- EUROZONE - EZ inflation to jump to just under 3% by May; ECB will hike in response
- UK - Oil prices will need to go higher for longer to justify a rate hike
- CHINA+ - China less exposed to the oil-price jolt than Japan
- EM ASIA - India should be able to stomach oil at $150 this year; main risk is 2027
- LATAM - Energy shock tests growth, inflation and policy outlook
- The Q1 fall in households’ wealth implies a $50B hit to spending, equal to 0.2% of annual consumption.
- Spending on recreation services is closely correlated with changes in households’ wealth...
- ...and near-real time data indicate that food services spending is already taking a hit.
- Consumption remains resilient in Mexico, but softening fundamentals signal momentum will slow ahead.
- Sticky services inflation and higher energy prices limit room for Banxico to resume its easing cycle soon…
- …It will likely prioritise its credibility, delaying cuts as external risks and inflation pressures intensify.
- Singapore’s combined January-to-February CPI suggests that inflation is still ticking up in Q1...
- …We note an alarming increase in health insurance premiums, which is being reined in for Q2.
- The Middle East energy crisis looks set to push inflation above 2% in Q2.
- China residential property market remains in the doldrums, with a 43% drop in sales month-to-date…
- …Construction area is still declining, while developer funding improved slightly thanks to policy support.
- Korea’s 20-day exports maintained robust growth in March, riding strong semiconductor demand.
- EZ interest rate expectations are being thrown around by the news-flow from Iran…
- …Too much tightening is now priced in for 2026; don’t pay rates into the March survey data.
- Tighter ECB policy means a flatter yield curve, similar to when pre-GFC rate hikes began in 2006.
- We assume indirect energy effects lift CPI inflation by almost as much as the direct energy price rises.
- Indirect energy effects are more delayed than motor fuels and utility prices, prolonging the inflation surge.
- We expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in November, but this is highly sensitive to oil and natural-gas prices.
- In one line: Korean exports jump, thanks to chip sales; oil product shipments surge
In one line: Korean exports jump, thanks to chip sales; oil product shipments surge
Inflation broadly accelerating in Singapore in Q1
- In one line: Slowing pay growth keeps the bar to a hike high, but payrolls show the labour market rebounding ahead of the Iran war.
- In one line: MPC surprises market hawkishly, guidance symmetric but more open to hikes than expected.
- In one line: War in the Middle East will hit sentiment in the manufacturing sector hard.
- In one line:The public finances will be hit hard if high energy prices persist for long.
- In one line: Infrastructure sectors carrying more of the weight alone; overall momentum still solid.
HIGHER GAS PRICES WILL HIT REAL INCOMES BY 1%
- THE FED WILL WORRY MORE ABOUT JOBS THAN THE CPI IN Q4
