- Malaysian exports unexpectedly fell by 1.1% in May, because of subdued commodity demand…
- …Weak crude oil futures and declining LNG demand will continue to drag on exports in H2.
- Thai stocks are slumping amid new political turmoil; instability is a known risk, so expect no quick fixes.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- A firm commitment from Germany to spend 5% of GDP on defence would be a rug-pull for Bunds.
- Rising investor sentiment and calmness on the trade front point to decent June survey data this week.
- Early-Q2 data indicate upside risk to GDP growth in France, but we still look for just 0.1% q/q.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Soft data and one more dove than expected last week nudge up the chances of an August rate cut.
- We see the bar to a majority in August higher than the market does and retain our call for a November cut.
- June’s flash PMI will give a steer on Q2 GDP, and a host of MPC speeches will shed light on guidance.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: We were wrong; SNB opts for another small cut.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: We were wrong; SNB opts for another small cut.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Rightly unfazed, for now, by the upswing in oil prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Rightly unfazed, for now, by the upswing in oil prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: COPOM surprises with a 25bp hike but signals a pause.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: COPOM surprises with a 25bp hike but signals a pause.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Japanese exports fall as US tariff hikes slam auto shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: A September cut is still on, but the ECB will end up regretting it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: A September cut is still on, but the ECB will end up regretting it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Brazil — Bolsonaro probe deepens, fiscal risks rise
- Mexico — Judicial reform starting to backfire
- Colombia — Violence, reform and fiscal crisis
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BSP cut rates by another 25bp, to 5.25%, while slashing its 2025 inflation forecast to just 1.6%…
- …We expect two more reductions by year-end, a scenario Mr. Remolona implied is on the cards.
- The CBC is not under enough pressure to consider a rate cut; the surge in the TWD could change this.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The SNB shied away from a jumbo cut, opting for a 25bp reduction for its sixth straight policy rate cut.
- The policy rate is now at zero; we doubt the SNB can avoid negative rates for long…
- ...We now expect another 25bp cut in September but think the SNB will be back hiking next year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC kept rates on hold in June, but one more member than we expected voted to cut by 25bp.
- Rate-setters left their key guidance paragraph broadly unchanged; “gradual and careful” remains the mantra.
- We still expect just one more cut to Bank Rate in 2025, in November.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Sticking to the gradualist approach, for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Sticking to the gradualist approach, for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
