Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Energy shock adding to the headwinds for growth and employment.
- In one line: Inflation surprised to the upside, while activity weakened sharply at the start of the year.
- In one line: Inflation surprised to the upside, while activity weakened sharply at the start of the year.
- In one line: Q1 consumption remains firm.
- In one line: Fundamental downward pressure on the THB is building rapidly.
In one line: Services knocked over amid strength in manufacturing.
- The oil futures prices relevant for new capital investment have risen by much less than spot prices.
- Greater capital discipline means oil investment is less responsive to jumps in prices than in the past.
- Either way, oil and gas investment is a very small share of the overall economy.
- Thailand’s customs trade deficit in February was a big miss, but this has been deteriorating for a while.
- The oil-price spike will likely see a current account deficit of -1.5% this year, after +3.1% in 2025.
- The BoT won’t mind if the THB falls further though, as it rightly has been more worried about strength.
- German IFO business sentiment sinks as the energy shock hits, denting hopes of a recovery this year.
- We’re lowering our forecast for German investment, but still see decent growth in Q2 and Q3.
- Fiscal stimulus and the net balance between external demand and inventories are tailwinds for growth.
- Headline inflation was unchanged at 3.0% in February, as a rise in core CPI offset weaker services inflation.
- Services inflation above the MPC’s forecast will leave rate-setters more worried about second-round effects…
- Inflation will trough at 2.8% in April before rising back up to 3.7% in November.
In one line: Consistent with a relatively cautious ECB, for now.
- domestic demand weakened, while manufacturers’ sentiment was resilient
- In one line: In one line: inflation fell in February, ahead of oil price surge
In one line: Japan's inflation fell in February, ahead of oil price surge; Services firms' sentiment dives to mid-2020 level
Iran war, unsurprisingly, hits India's PMIs immediately
IRAN WAR RAISES INFLATION AND CUTS GROWTH...
- …MPC WILL HAVE TO STAY ON HOLD
- US - Markets are overlooking the labor market damage of the oil shock
- EUROZONE - ECB quietly endorses market expectations for hikes this year
- UK - Hawkish set of MPC minutes lowers the bar to hikes in 2026
- CHINA+ - China’s private sector starting to revive in selected areas
- EM ASIA - India should be able to stomach oil at $150 this year; main risk is 2027
- LATAM - Benign inflation in Brazil, but oil shock clouds COPOM outlook
- Calls that AI already justifies lower interest rates look ill-founded, given the limited productivity boost so far.
- AI might prove more disinflationary in the future, but the picture is highly uncertain.
- A faster “speed limit” for the economy seems more likely than much lower inflation and interest rates.
- Food and energy shocks have driven inflation higher in Mexico, but core pressures are contained.
- Economic activity weakened sharply at the start of the year, signalling a broader loss of momentum.
- Banxico will hold rates, as inflation risks are persisting and growth slowing, reinforcing its cautious stance.
- India’s PMIs have been softening for a while, but the Iran-war hit is notable, especially in manufacturing…
- …The complete PMIs for Q1 back our downbeat call for GDP of 6.1%; the long-term outlook is unfazed.
- Taiwanese retail sales—ex-vehicles—are better than they look; the war is unlikely to hurt tourist inflows.
