- We expect CPI inflation to stay at 3.0% in February, 0.2pp higher than the MPC’s forecast.
- Food inflation should remain firm, while BRC non-food shop prices are rising faster than in 2024.
- We now expect CPI inflation to peak at 3.8% in September; 4.0%-plus is possible.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Manufacturing recovery already showing signs of fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Consumers are spending again but uncertainty hits investment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Surging global uncertainty hammers manufacturing output, but watch rising price pressures.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Nasty; is the ECB done this week?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: A surprising—though likely temporary—dip into outright deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A 7-month high, but no clear signs of US front-loading, yet.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: Consistent with another 0.5% q/q increase in GDP in Q1; price pressures rising.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
A 7-month high for ASEAN’s PMI, but no clear signs of US front-loading, yet
A surprising—though likely temporary—dip into outright deflation in Indonesia
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Manufacturing sentiment rebounds, despite the brewing trade war
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Caixin PMI shows manufacturing sentiment rebound, despite the brewing trade war
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI leapt suddenly in February to a seven-month high of 51.5…
- …But it seems to have been flattered by residual seasonality, and pockets of weakness still persist.
- The descent into outright deflation in Indonesia should be short-lived, as the power relief expires.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Mr. Milei has achieved the ‘miracle’ of macro stabilisation without wrecking Argentina’s economy.
- The sectoral performance highlights strength in agriculture, mining and retail; construction lags behind.
- Peru’s disinflation is continuing, still within the central bank’s target range amid external uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The ECB will cut its policy rates by 25bp, but the argument for further easing is now much tougher.
- February inflation data mean the ECB’s forecast for Q2 inflation at 2.1% is now a Hail Mary.
- ECB doves will focus on downside risks to growth and employment from tariffs; they have a point.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The rise in credit-card borrowing in January points to consumers recovering from October Budget wobbles.
- Increasing mortgage approvals for house purchase signal a broad-based revival in buyer interest.
- But falling finance raised suggests business investment has been hit hard by uncertainty.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
