Pantheon Publications

PM Datanote: US PPI, April

Pointing to a mere 0.12% rise in the core PCE deflator, and margin pressure for distributors.

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales/Weekly Jobless Claims

Further weakness probably lies in store.

EZ Datanote: Trade, EZ, March 2025

In one line: A new record high, thanks to tariff front-running by US firms.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 16 May 2025

Don’t panic about the continued ballooning of India’s trade deficit

PM Datanote: GDP, Colombia, Q1, 2025

• In one line:  Solid start to the year, but risks loom.

Global Datanote: Banxico Announcement, Mexico, May, 2025

• In one line: Banxico cuts again but strikes a cautious tone.

19 May 2025 US Monitor April data consistent with consumers bearing nearly all the tariff costs

• April import price data damage the theory that overseas manufacturers will absorb some tariff costs.
• PPI trade services prices—gross margins—usually are revised up; retailers are planning June price hikes.
• Residential construction payrolls are vulnerable to a drop in housing starts; the market is oversupplied.

19 May 2025 LatAm Monitor Banxico delivers another 50bp rate cut amid weak growth

• Banxico cut rates again, but its tone was more cautious due to the recent uptick in Mexico’s inflation.
• Economic activity is weak, and inflation is within the target range, supporting the case for further easing.
• Argentina’s inflation slowed sharply in April, defying expectations after the FX liberalisation.

19 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor VND weakness is no bargaining chip; it's under real pressure

• VND underperformance could look bad amid ongoing US trade talks, but the SBV’s hands are tied.
• Talk of a ‘crisis’ in Thai tourism is overblown; yes, Q1 was grim, but other big markets are struggling too.
• Singapore export growth easily beat expectations in April, though underlying trends are softening.

19 May 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's weak Q1 GDP print reinforces BoJ's decision to pause

• Japan’s GDP shrank more than the market expected in Q1, and for the first time in a year.
• Weak services exports were to blame; consumption was hit by fragile confidence and high inflation.
• The BoJ will hold rate s for the time being, as it mulls the outcome of talks and assesses its effects.

19 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ surveys out this week will take comfort from tariff de-escalation

• We look for broad-based strength in the surveys for May, but we think it will be temporary. 
• The Eurozone’s trade surplus soared in Q1, boosted by tariff front-running in pharmaceuticals.
• The EZ runs a deficit with the US in services, but a surplus if intellectual property is excluded.

19 May 2025 UK Monitor Week in Review: Solid Q1, fading tariff drag boost growth forecasts

• Strong underlying growth momentum and President Trump’s backtracking on tariffs boost our forecasts.
• We boost our growth forecasts to 1.1% and 1.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, each up 0.2pp..
• We see risks to the consensus, and the MPC’s forecast, for April CPI skewed heavily upwards.

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, March 2025

• In one line: Small boost from tariff-front running, which likely continued as President Trump pushed back reciprocal tariffs by 90-days.

UK Datanote: UK GDP March 2025

• In one line:Fading consumer caution will keep GDP ticking along.

PM Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, March, 2025

• In one line: Retail finishes Q1 strongly, but headwinds still limit momentum.

EZ Datanote: GDP (2nd Est.) & Employment, EZ, Q1 2025 and Industrial Production, EZ, March 2025

In one line: Industry supported EZ GDP in Q1, as did the labour market. 

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, April 2025

In one line: The core remains soft, but surveys point to upside risks. 

EZ Datanote: GDP flash, Switzerland, Q1 2025

In one line: A strong first quarter for the Swiss economy. 

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, April

Tariff shock puts small business under further pressure.

16 May 2025 US Monitor Resilience in consumers' spending on goods unlikely to last

• Retail sales held up relatively well in April, clinging on to nearly all their solid gains in March.
• But sales volumes are likely to falter soon, as the wave of pre-tariff purchases unwinds in earnest.
• A more substantial pass-through from tariffs to retail prices probably will soon weigh on sales volumes too.