Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: We were wrong; SNB opts for another small cut.
- In one line: Rightly unfazed, for now, by the upswing in oil prices.
- In one line: Rightly unfazed, for now, by the upswing in oil prices.
- In one line: COPOM surprises with a 25bp hike but signals a pause.
- In one line: COPOM surprises with a 25bp hike but signals a pause.
Japanese exports fall as US tariff hikes slam auto shipments
In one line: A September cut is still on, but the ECB will end up regretting it.
In one line: A September cut is still on, but the ECB will end up regretting it.
- Many FOMC participants raised their rate forecasts, but Mr. Powell says “no one... has a lot of conviction”.
- The Committee is overlooking several indicators that point to a material rise in unemployment ahead.
- The slump in single family construction is deepening, another headwind to activity and employment.
- Brazil — Bolsonaro probe deepens, fiscal risks rise
- Mexico — Judicial reform starting to backfire
- Colombia — Violence, reform and fiscal crisis
- The BSP cut rates by another 25bp, to 5.25%, while slashing its 2025 inflation forecast to just 1.6%…
- …We expect two more reductions by year-end, a scenario Mr. Remolona implied is on the cards.
- The CBC is not under enough pressure to consider a rate cut; the surge in the TWD could change this.
- The SNB shied away from a jumbo cut, opting for a 25bp reduction for its sixth straight policy rate cut.
- The policy rate is now at zero; we doubt the SNB can avoid negative rates for long…
- ...We now expect another 25bp cut in September but think the SNB will be back hiking next year.
- The MPC kept rates on hold in June, but one more member than we expected voted to cut by 25bp.
- Rate-setters left their key guidance paragraph broadly unchanged; “gradual and careful” remains the mantra.
- We still expect just one more cut to Bank Rate in 2025, in November.
- In one line: Sticking to the gradualist approach, for now.
- In one line: Sticking to the gradualist approach, for now.
Japanese exports fall as US tariff hikes slam auto shipments
Export front-running in Thai exports is still going strong
- Thai export growth soared to a fresh multi-year high in May, as the front-loading broadened in scope…
- …But short-term leading indicators are still weakening, further clouding the H2 payback story.
- Bank Indonesia went back to a pause after its April cut, but we expect 75bp in further easing in H2.
- Japan’s exports fell in May for the first time since September, hit by US tariff hikes.
- Still, exports held up better than the market expected, as exporters cut prices and shipments to the EU rose.
- The bond market faces risks from July’s upper house election, despite the BoJ’s supportive policy tweak.
- The EZ current account surplus crashed in April, pulled lower by net trade in goods and services.
- Portfolio in- and outflows in the Eurozone remain strong, but both are now likely peaking.
- Final EZ HICP data leave intact yesterday’s forecast update, save for a small revision to inflation in 2025.
