Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The hit to EZ goods trade from higher US tariffs is visible in the nominal monthly figures.
- Goods trade was a drag on EZ GDP in Q2, mainly due to a fall in exports to the US in April to June.
- We suspect the nominal goods trade surplus will turn to a deficit in Q3.
- The ONS’s measure of house prices rebounded by 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May.
- Activity indicators and gains in the private-sector house price indices suggest another rise in June.
- Sticky interest rates are a risk to house price inflation, but we retain our call for prices to gain 3.75% in 2025.
In one line: Net trade in goods was a drag on GDP in Q2.
US tariff themes aplenty in Thailand’s Q2; expect a faster slowdown in H2
- In one line: RICS falters in July but it will gradually rise in H2.
- In one line:Strong GDP growth in H1 illustrates a high neutral rate.
In one line: lacklustre broad credit growth, excluding government bonds
In one line: China's weakening investment and retail sales data raise worries for H2 demand outlook
Price pressures are building, but July's data overstate the intensity.
In one line: Q2 slowdown confirmed; industry partly to blame.
- Growth in consumers’ real spending has stabilized following in sharp slowdown in H1 2025...
- ...But the labor market is set to remain weak, and most of the uplift to prices from tariffs lies ahead.
- We think spending will grow only at a meager 1-to-1½% pace in second half of this year.
- EM Asia's contribution to world growth continues to rise, thanks in no small part to its demographics…
- …Working-age populations won’t peak for another two decades, but chinks in the armour are emerging.
- We expect a further softening in Thai GDP growth in Q2, to 2.7%; look for a much smaller q/q trade lift.
- China’s July activity data point to a worrying slowdown in domestic demand, notably investment.
- Industrial and services output maintained growth, however, above the 5% target for official GDP growth.
- More targeted stimulus will be needed in the coming months, especially if and when export growth sinks.
- EZ PPI inflation, ex-services, is stabilising just below 1%, but divergence among sectors is high.
- The trend in global energy prices points to continued deflation in EZ energy producer prices…
- …But food producer price inflation is sticky, signalling upside risk to consumer prices in this category.
- Above-consensus payrolls and GDP growth show the job market is recovering and growth is holding firm.
- The MPC faces rebounding growth, a stabilising job market and inflation miles above target.
- We expect CPI inflation for July to come in fractionally below the MPC’s forecast at 3.7%.
In one line: Holding steady at a low level.
In one line: BoJ stands pat today, nudges up its inflation forecast; Ueda dovish at presser
In one line: China PMI signals weakening manufacturing momentum at the start of H2; policy support likely ahead
In one line: China keeps LPR unchanged, further easing expected in the second half of 2025
