Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: EZ construction likely escaped recession in Q4.
In one line: Strong but can we trust it?
In one line: Revised down, the ECB will still stand pat tomorrow.
In one line: Revised down, the ECB will still stand pat tomorrow.
- Measurement issues depressed November goods prices, airline fares, rent and auto insurance....
- ...We see no evidence of a slowing in the trend in core-core services prices yet.
- But the outlook looks benign; tariffs are now mostly passed through, while wages and rents are slowing.
- Faster disinflation and anchored expectations allow a cautious rate cut in Chile, after two straight holds…
- …Improving global conditions, firmer copper prices and resilient activity support Chile’s macro outlook.
- Growth is resilient in Argentina, as exports strengthen and fiscal discipline anchors stability.
- The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.00% for the third straight meeting yesterday, as widely expected.
- Its new forecasts, showing growth at potential and inflation at target, suggest no further easing.
- The next rate move will likely be up, in 2027; we see two 25bp hikes, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%.
- The MPC reduced Bank Rate by 25bp to 3.75% in a widely expected five-to-four vote yesterday.
- But the meeting minutes were guarded, and Governor Bailey struck a hawkish tone on the pace of pay gains.
- We remain comfortable with our call for just one more cut to Bank Rate in 2026; it will be closely fought.
In one line: Down, mirroring fall in PMI.
- In one line: Look for a change in strategy—to RRR cuts—next year.
- In one line: Look for a change in strategy—to RRR cuts—next year.
- In one line: Expect a quick follow-up cut in February.
- In one line: Expect a quick follow-up cut in February.
- In one line: Activity should continue to rise in Q1 2026.
The implied jump in services inflation makes little sense.
- In one line: Budget chaos hits job growth, but pay growth remains strong nonetheless so the MPC will have to be cautious.
- In one line:Some of the downside was noise and will unwind, but GDP will now do well to rise 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- In one line: The trade balance should improve in November as erratic falls unwind and goods exports rise.
- In one line: Small fall in inflation expectations helps the case for a rate cut next week.
October's strength in control sales looks unlikely to last.
