Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- Recent completed and rumoured trade “deals” mean August 1 looks like less of a tariff cliff-edge.
- But these agreements imply little change in the overall average effective tariff rate on US imports.
- The weakness in new home sales in June probably is here to stay, weighing further on housing starts.
- Disinflation has resumed in Mexico, driven by softer food and energy prices; services are still a challenge.
- Favourable base effects, a stronger MXN and subdued demand continue to support disinflation.
- July data support a 25bp Banxico rate cut, as structural pressure limits the magnitude of easing.
- India’s PMIs continued to regain momentum in July on a three-month rolling basis, despite services dip.
- They point to waning downside risk to GDP growth this year, but the clouds over 2026 are darkening.
- Thailand’s near-full Q2 trade data point to a smaller but still-big net GDP boost, at +4.4pp from +7.0pp.
- Deputy Governor Uchida said on Wednesday that the US-Japan tariff deal reduces uncertainty...
- ...hinting that the BoJ will revise up its growth and inflation outlook next week.
- The July composite flash PMI was steady, though services and manufacturing activity diverged.
- The ECB stood pat, as expected; Ms. Lagarde turned hawkish during the press conference.
- We still think inflation below 2% over the summer will be enough for a 25bp rate cut in September.
- EZ PMIs for July point to resilience, but also continued fragile growth in the core economies.
- The PMI’s headline activity index fell in July and signals quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.1% in Q3.
- But a short-lived rise in global trade policy uncertainty likely spooked firms, so we expect an upward revision.
- The PMI overstates job market weakness because of a sample seemingly skewed towards large firms.
- US - Tariff-related price hikes hit in June, with worse to come in July
- EUROZONE - ECB to stand pat this week; big decision awaits in September
- UK - Most of June’s CPI inflation rise was genuine
- CHINA+ - China’s steady real GDP print masks intensifying deflation
- EM ASIA - Malaysian GDP growth rises slightly, but the fundamentals are worrying
- LATAM - Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead
- In one line: Mexico’s growth holding up in Q2, but headwinds are mounting.
- In one line: Mexico’s growth holding up in Q2, but headwinds are mounting.
- We expect a partial recovery in the dollar as the President rows back some of his wilder tariff threats…
- …But the sharp dollar decline this year so far will add, at the margin, to the upward pressure on inflation.
- Continued uncertainty around trade policy probably will prevent a meaningful dollar boost to exports.
- Taiwan’s retail sales were worse than we expected in June, as they declined by 2.9% year-over-year.
- This spells trouble for consumption in next week’s Q2 GDP; overall growth should still come in strong.
- Malaysian inflation fell yet again, to 1.1%, while the government has announced more fuel subsidies.
- We are raising our growth and inflation forecasts for Japan, after yesterday’s relatively benign trade deal.
- The BoJ is likely to resume rate hikes in October, as it forms an initial view on the 2026 wage outlook.
- USDJPY is likely to strengthen moderately; but political risk was evident in the 40-year JGB auction yesterday.
- Supply and demand analysis on BTPs would suggest a lower yield over the coming years…
- ...But more accurate spread analysis implies it will fall only slightly from current levels out to 2027.
- We expect the BTP-Bund spread to fall to 50bp by year-end and to 30bp by Q1 next year.
- Vacancies are one of the least accurate leading indicators of near-term job growth.
- Moreover, high-frequency data suggest that vacancies have stabilised...
- ...In part as small firms’ hiring intentions recover sharply from payroll-tax-hike-induced falls in April.
In one line: Lending standards still tight while demand for loans is rising.
- In one line:Autumn tax hikes are likely and will probably be backloaded.
- Housing inflation will fall much further over the rest of this year, lagging the real-time rent data…
- …Lower housing inflation will offset about a quarter of the remaining uplift from tariff pass-through.
- It's in no one's interest for the administration to seek to oust Fed Chair Powell.
- Mexico’s IGAE data show resilience, yet fading services and capex signal weak momentum into H2.
- Labour-market softness is deepening, with job creation stalling and real wage growth slowing further.
- Banxico is facing pressure to ease, but sticky core services inflation will constrain the pace of cuts.
- Indian core IP growth rose for a second straight month in June, to 1.7%, after its April plunge…
- …Refined petroleum product growth has recovered and should stabilise from here on out.
- Overall momentum is still deteriorating, however, with the electricity slump particularly worrying.
- Lending standards for firms were left unchanged in Q2, so they remain tight…
- ...Meanwhile, banks made it harder for households to borrow money, and rejection rates jumped…
- ...Q2’s bank lending survey is one for ECB doves, but only slightly; it won’t prompt a cut this week.
