Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Downtrend in jobless claims won’t last long.
- In one line:Retail sales are trending up solidly.
- In one line: A—slightly—more credible print; consumption, in reality, slowed further in Q2.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence knocked by inflation and tax hike speculation.
- In one line: Consumers still look set to support GDP growth in H2.
In one line: No change; we still see the EZ HICP at 1.8% y/y.
- In one line: On hold, signalling caution amid heightened uncertainty.
- In one line: On hold, signalling caution amid heightened uncertainty.
Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.
- In one line: Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.
- In one line: Solid momentum but headwinds lingering.
- In one line: Solid momentum but headwinds lingering.
In one line: China's Q2 Politburo meeting downplays trade risks, focuses on domestic issues like price wars
- The meager growth in consumers’ spending in the first half of this year probably will continue in the second.
- Modest gains in nominal incomes will struggle to keep up with the post-tariff jump in consumer prices.
- We see core PCE inflation hitting 3¼% by year-end, but expect the Fed to prioritize the softening labor market.
- The COPOM kept rates on hold and a cautious tone, highlighting persistent inflation and global risks…
- …US tariffs raise external threats, but exemptions soften the impact on Brazil’s key export sectors.
- BCCh resumed its easing cycle with a 25bp cut, signalling a gradual return to neutral if warranted.
- Taiwanese GDP growth rose to 8.0% in Q2, from 5.5%, driven by extremely strong exports…
- …Other components were basically non-existent; investment suffered a sharp slowdown.
- Exports may not be driven purely by front-loading, as genuine demand exists for chips, thanks to AI.
- The BoJ yesterday kept the policy rate on hold at 0.5%, as widely expected.
- The Bank remains cautious about the growth outlook, despite the US-Japan trade deal.
- The BoJ did raise its inflation forecast though, because of food inflation.
- HICP inflation held steady in France in July, but dipped in Germany and Italy.
- The month-to-month changes in HICP prices point to EZ headline inflation staying at 2.0% in July.
- EZ unemployment was unchanged at a record low in June; we still expect a small rise by year-end.
- Our central Bank Rate forecast is hawkish, assuming only one more cut this year and none next year.
- A probability-weighted average of three scenarios is more dovish but still above the market in 2026.
- Continued sharp payroll falls or easing inflation expectations would shift us to more dovish scenarios.
