Pantheon Publications

27 November 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Fiscal Consolidation in Malaysia's 2024 Budget Likely Too Optimistic

• Malaysia’s fiscal budget for 2024 targets a steep cut in the deficit to 4.3% of GDP, from 5.0% this year...
• …But the deficit is likely to be bigger, with the bulk of the adjustment falling to lower subsidy spending.
• The Fiscal Responsibility Bill, if credible, forces the government into stricter austerity measures.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 November 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor BI on Hold; Fourth and Final SBV Rate Cut Now Looking Unlikely

• BI stood pat yesterday after October’s surprise hike; we maintain that easing is just around the corner.
• We no longer expect a fourth 50bp rate cut from the SBV, with M2 growth now clearly turning a corner.
• Jump in Singaporean inflation in October should not distract from a likely sharp drop in November.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

22 November 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Further Improvement in Malaysian Export Growth on the Cards

• Malaysian export growth leapt to -4.4% year-over- year in October, from -13.8% in September...
• ...Supported by friendly base effects, recovering electronics exports and higher commodity prices.
• The factors behind October’s jump are likely to persist over Q4, boosting export growth further.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 November 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Collapse in Imports Saves Thai Q3 GDP from Complete Disaster

• GDP growth in Thailand fell to 1.5% in Q3, from 1.8% in Q2, missing the consensus for a bounce...
• ...Quarterly growth firmed up, but only because imports hit a wall; the destocking cycle has begun.
• We have cut our GDP outlook and still see a further slowdown in 2024 to 2.2%, from 2.4% this year.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 20 November 2023

A massive, but perverse, net trade boost saves Thai Q3 GDP from a complete car crash
Export growth in Malaysia jumps even, as it remains flat in nominal terms 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 17 November 2023

Momentum in Singaporean exports builds, supported by base effects

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 November 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Singaporean Export Growth Likely to Improve Further by Year-End

• Singaporean export growth continued to recover in October, albeit boosted by friendly base effects...
• …The improvement in nominal terms appears more modest, as external demand remains weak.
• Overall, though, trade should provide a larger boost to Q4 GDP, on the back of this improvement.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 November 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor BSP's Stubborn Hawkishness to Be Tested Soon

• The BSP held its target reverse repo rate at 6.50% yesterday, following October’s out-of-cycle hike...
• ...Its hawkish blind spot fails to recognise that policy will tighten markedly in 2024 even if it stays on hold.
• Two-way trade growth in Indonesia continued to recover in October, but the devil is in the detail.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: A sensible pause, after October’s rash out-of-cycle hike.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 November 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't Sound the Alarm for India's Record Trade Deficit in October

• India’s trade deficit plunged to an historic low of -$31.5B in October, due partly to painful seasonals.
• Negative oil effects will soon reverse, and we welcome the October bounce in non-oil imports.
• Upstream price pressures remain benign, making soon-to-be-sticky CPI inflation easier to swallow.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia