PERSISTENCE PERSISTS...
- ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN AUGUST, THEN ONCE A QUARTER
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS SUBPAR...
- ...BUT LOW INFLATION IS ALLOWING GRADUAL INTEREST RATE CUTS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
THE FIRST ECB RATE CUT IS COMING...
- …BUT A JULY CUT IS OUT, AND SEPTEMBER IS AT RISK TOO
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
TAIWAN’S PUNCHY Q1 GDP IS AS GOOD AS IT’LL GET
- …ELECTION TAILWINDS IN INDONESIA’S Q1 ARE IRREPLICABLE
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- - CHINA GETS SERIOUS ABOUT PROPERTY SECTOR SUPPORT
- - BOJ CAUGHT BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE
- - BOK LIKELY TO DELAY RATE RISE AMID EXPORT BOOM
Duncan WrigleyChina+
PAYROLL GROWTH IS SET TO SLOW SHARPLY…
- …THE FED WILL RESPOND, BUT WHEN?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
LATAM CENTRAL BANKS ADOPT A MORE HAWKISH POSITION
- A CAUTIOUS FED AND STICKY SERVICES INFLATION ARE HURTING
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
AN—UNWELCOME—FEELING OF DEJA VU FROM BI
- …GDP GROWTH IN DEVELOPED ASEAN PICKS UP IN Q1
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- - CHINA’S RECOVERY MAKING HEADWAY
- - JPY PRESSURE GIVING THE BOJ A HEADACHE
- - STRONG EXPORTS LIFT KOREAN GROWTH
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
THE FIRST ECB RATE CUT IS COMING IN JUNE...
- ...IF THE INFLATION AND WAGE DATA COOPERATE
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
STUBBORN SERVICES INFLATION AND WAGES...
- ...BUT THE MPC HAS SEEN ENOUGH SLOWING TO CUT IN JUNE
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
LABOR MARKET WARNING SIGNS ARE FLASHING RED…
- …BUT CHAIR POWELL SEES NO “CRACKS”
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING AND DISINFLATION IS CONTINUING…
- …ENABLING CENTRAL BANKS TO PURSUE FURTHER RATE CUTS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
8% GROWTH IN INDIA AN UNSUSTAINABLE FACADE
- …TAIWAN’S SURPRISE HIKE SHOULD BE A ‘ONE-AND-DONE’
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
ECB MONETARY EASING WILL BEGIN SOON...
- ...APRIL IS LIVE, BUT JUNE IS MORE LIKELY
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
CPI INFLATION WILL BE SUB-2.0% AS SOON AS APRIL...
- ...THE MPC HAS THE CONFIDENCE TO START CUTTING IN JUNE
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
THE LABOR MARKET IS ABOUT TO SLOW, SHARPLY…
- …THE FED WILL RESPOND, BUT WHEN?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
CHINA+ OUTLOOK
- CHINA’S TWO SESSIONS OFFER ONLY TARGETED STIMULUS
- BOJ EXITS FROM NEGATIVE RATES; NO NEAR-TERM MOVES
- DEMAND FOR HIGH-END CHIPS LIFTS KOREAN EXPORTS
Duncan WrigleyChina+
MONETARY POLICY NORMALISATION CONTINUES...
- ...DESPITE A BAD START TO Q1 FOR INFLATION, DUE TO EL NIÑO
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
CHICKENS COME HOME TO ROOST IN THAILAND
- ...FAREWELL TO AUTOMATIC FISCAL CONSOLIDATION IN INDIA
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
