Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Brazil’s inflation dipped slightly in January, but the near-term outlook remains bleak…
- …But pressures will ease in H2 as weakening domestic and external demand weigh on inflation.
- A very, very ugly outlook for Mexico’s industrial sector under Trump 2.0; it could be avoided though.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Bunds have hovered close to fair value since the beginning of the year, according to our models.
- US Treasuries and Schatz point to upside risks to Bund yields, but fundamentals pull the other way.
- Near-term risks to Bund yields are tilted to the downside, before bear-steepening in H2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Stronger ONS population forecasts should boost potential output growth by 0.1pp per year.
- The OBR will likely cut productivity growth forecasts, leaving potential growth unchanged.
- We estimate the Chancellor has about £5B of headroom against her fiscal rules.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Manufacturers have hiked prices to game pre-tariff demand, but prices for autos and clothing likely fell.
- Revisions to the seasonals should temper the residual seasonality in the services price data.
- New tariffs on steel and aluminum will have minimal impact on overall inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
- Colombia’s disinflation has paused, complicating BanRep’s efforts to support activity.
- Increased political noise, elevated fiscal strain and external uncertainty are challenges for policymakers.
- Chile’s electricity-tariff hike sparks an inflation surge, dimming hopes for further rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Taiwanese export growth fell more than expected in January; blame the Lunar New Year noise…
- …Yet, demand from China remains weak, with exports there falling in three of the past four months.
- Headline inflation rose too, but this—again—seems due mainly to residual Lunar New Year effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s January headline consumer inflation jumped, due to holiday spending and timing effects.
- The holiday bump in inflation is likely to subside after Lunar New Year, with demand still soft.
- Producer prices continued to fall in January, amid signs of industrial excess supply and falling costs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- US tariffs on steel and aluminium would have only a minimal direct impact on EZ exports and GDP…
- …But the constant threat of tariffs is raising uncertainty for firms, adding to downside risks for capex.
- The CDU/CSU remains in pole position in Germany, but it is ceding ground to the AFD.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Rebounding airfares, and private-school fee hikes, will drive up CPI inflation to 2.8% in January.
- CPI services inflation should surge to 5.2% in January, matching the MPC’s updated forecasts.
- Risks lie to the upside of our forecast for CPI inflation to reach 3.4% in April and 3.5% in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Output per hour rose an impressive 2.3% in 2024; surveys point to higher IT spending by firms in 2025.
- AI spending, however, poses near-term downside risks to employment and more disinflation pressure.
- Mixed signals on federal spending so far, but DOGE likely will drag slightly on demand and employment.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil’s industrial output beat consensus in December, yet leading indicators point to a weakening trend.
- January’s COPOM minutes reveal a hawkish stance, despite economic activity softening.
- Peru’s inflation remains well on target, paving the way for a final rate cut in Q2, assuming a stable PEN.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Vietnamese export growth plunged into the red in January, but this can be explained fully by Tet noise.
- The January jump in inflation to a six-month high was policy-induced; again, no need to panic.
- The BSP isn’t too fussed by the upside surprise in January inflation; official core has clearly bottomed.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- House prices rose by around 3.5% in 2024, much stronger than we were anticipating…
- …A recovery in demand and still-subdued supply point to a further pick-up, supporting consumption.
- German industry ended 2024 on a better note than we expected, according to advance turnover data.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC’s words, forecasts and pay survey point to only one-to-two more rate cuts this year.
- Rate-setters are guiding to “careful and gradual” cuts, and placing more weight on their hawkish scenarios.
- So, we think the market has gone too far in pricing a better-than-even chance of three more cuts in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- March 2024 payrolls likely will be revised down by about 670K after benchmarking to UI records...
- ...The birth-death model’s contribution to payroll growth since then probably will be revised down too.
- We see some evidence of tariff “front-running” in December trade data; expect a lot more to come.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazilian Real — Resilience in the face of adversity
- Mexican Peso — Complex economic and external waters
- Colombian Peso — Trade and fiscal issues in the spotlight
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesian GDP growth stayed at 5% in Q4, but we reckon in reality it was closer to the mid-4% range.
- The unsustainable Q3 boost from stocks reversed, but this was offset by statistical discrepancies.
- Government spending and exports were the real—tangible—bright spots, countering capex softness.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s consumption activity was strong over the Lunar New Year holiday period...
- ...But it is likely to slow again afterwards, repeating the pattern established since the reopening.
- January’s Caixin services PMI activity slowed a tad before the holiday, but expectations improved.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Bonds rallied yesterday on dovish headlines in the ECB’s wage tracker, but the details beg to differ.
- The EU is ready to strike back at US tariffs, but we still see a low risk of a prolonged tariff spat.
- ‘Habemus budget’ in France; industrial output fell in December, but it will rebound in January.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Surging uncertainty and payroll taxes are keeping the economy close to stagnation, according to the PMI.
- But the PMI also signals underlying services inflation accelerating back above 5%.
- The MPC will cut Bank Rate today but will give cautious guidance as it balances growth and inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
