Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- Industrial metals prices have an almost imperceptible impact on CPI core goods prices.
- Surging precious metals prices signal a 25% rise in jewelry prices, but just a 0.03pp lift to the core CPI.
- The slowdown in rents will dominate, likely subtracting 0.4pp from core CPI inflation by year-end.
- Public spending and strong consumption drive activity in Colombia, while industry remains uneven.
- A widening trade deficit, record remittances and rising import intensity are reshaping the external picture.
- The minimum-wage shock is lifting inflation expectations, forcing BanRep to tighten further.
- Thai customs exports easily beat expectations in December, with growth returning to double digits…
- …Soaring US demand is getting more help from the DM world, while shipments elsewhere are lagging.
- On balance, it looks like net trade will hit Q4 GDP hard, especially with imports bouncing strongly.
- We see downside risks to the early inflation data for January in Germany and Spain, out this week…
- …But we’re slightly above the consensus on Eurozone Q4 GDP growth, at 0.3%.
- Will the January jump in the services output price PMI be replicated in the EC survey? We doubt it.
- Retail sales growth month-to-month was flattered by jewellery sales and seasonals in December.
- But revisions mean sales increased by a solid 2.7% month-to-month annualised over 2024-to-25.
- Rising major purchase intentions and younger people’s confidence bode well for the outlook.
- Solid increases in consumers’ spending in October and November point to a 2½-to-3% gain in Q4…
- …But the sustainable pace now is far lower, given weak income growth and a rock-bottom saving rate.
- FOMC members’ forecasts for Q4 core PCE inflation were too high; they’re unduly gloomy about 2026 too.
- Inflation is still contained in Mexico, but excise taxes and services are slowing the final stage of disinflation.
- Sticky core inflation and firmer consumption argue for Banxico to pause after an extended easing cycle.
- Trade uncertainty, tariffs and USMCA risk reinforce the need for cautious policy in H1.
- BNM held the OPR at 2.75% yesterday, in line with expectations, prolonging its ongoing pause.
- For now, AI-driven export strength should continue, meaning no rate cuts in 2026.
- Subdued inflation should leave the door open to a rate cut in the event of an economic shock.
- President Trump has backed down on Greenland, bringing relief to Nuuk, Copenhagen and markets.
- The EZ budget deficit widened in Q3, driven mainly by a significant increase in Germany’s deficit.
- Risks to Germany’s fiscal push remain tilted towards near-term disappointment on growth.
- December’s public finances report showed borrowing was below the OBR’s most recent projections.
- The shaky foundations of the Budget create a risk of looser fiscal policy in the coming years.
- Risks are tilted towards a sell-off in the gilt market as investors re-price in long-term fiscal pressures.
- Tax refunds this year likely will exceed 2025’s total by about $90B, equal to 0.4% of disposable income...
- ...Most refunds will be made over the next three months, facilitating a temporary jump in spending.
- Low confidence and saving, however, mean we expect only one-third of the extra cash to be spent.
- Brazil — Legal battles and electoral risk
- Colombia — Risk premium rises ahead of elections
- Peru — Politics unsettled, markets remain resilient
- Bank Indonesia remained on hold yesterday, a position we expect to continue for all of 2026…
- …Worries over BI’s independence seem overblown; note its sovereign debt holding is no longer rising.
- Core IP in India firmed up more in December, but Q4 on the whole, and the details are uninspiring.
- The EU, following the Mercosur deal, looks all set to sign the “mother of all deals” with India.
- A trade deal involving energy could secure key markets for EU manufacturing, and energy imports.
- Both India and the EU are motivated to get a deal done at the end of January.
- Tobacco duty and a jump in airfares drove up CPI inflation to 3.4% in December, a touch above our call.
- We note a few obvious erratic factors, with a January airfares correction likely balanced by solid hotel prices.
- Inflation gives rate-setters little reason to rush to cut next month, but we see a final rate reduction in April.
- GDPNow’s forecast track record is far from perfect, and its latest projections are based on limited data.
- We think it is overstating the likely strength of consumption, and the boost from trade and inventories.
- The EU’s proposed tariffs on US exports would hurt little, but services barriers could be a bigger deal.
- Argentina’s inflation fell sharply over 2025, though momentum is fading as utility tariffs normalise…
- …Fiscal discipline and a redesigned FX regime will determine whether inflation falls close to 20% in 2026.
- Primary weakness weighed on November activity in Peru, but underlying growth momentum is strong.
- Malaysian exports blew past expectations in December; analysts underestimated the AI boom...
- …We have upgraded our 2026 GDP forecast, as we think AI demand will remain firm for some time.
- Malaysia’s inflation ticked up in December, but we consider this a one-off not a re-acceleration.
- Chinese policymakers apparently see little prospect of a short-term residential property-market recovery.
- The home provident fund reform is unlikely to boost property demand, barring a huge funding injection.
- Developer credit risk remains high, as home sales income falls and policy support is adjusted.
- Investor sentiment soared at the start of 2026, but geopolitical tremors now hint at a slide in February.
- EZ construction output fell in November, but we still look for a decent gain over Q4 as a whole…
- …Leading indicators for construction in France and Germany are improving, slowly.
