Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- The BSP cut rates by another 25bp, to 5.25%, while slashing its 2025 inflation forecast to just 1.6%…
- …We expect two more reductions by year-end, a scenario Mr. Remolona implied is on the cards.
- The CBC is not under enough pressure to consider a rate cut; the surge in the TWD could change this.
- The MPC kept rates on hold in June, but one more member than we expected voted to cut by 25bp.
- Rate-setters left their key guidance paragraph broadly unchanged; “gradual and careful” remains the mantra.
- We still expect just one more cut to Bank Rate in 2025, in November.
- Thai export growth soared to a fresh multi-year high in May, as the front-loading broadened in scope…
- …But short-term leading indicators are still weakening, further clouding the H2 payback story.
- Bank Indonesia went back to a pause after its April cut, but we expect 75bp in further easing in H2.
- Japan’s exports fell in May for the first time since September, hit by US tariff hikes.
- Still, exports held up better than the market expected, as exporters cut prices and shipments to the EU rose.
- The bond market faces risks from July’s upper house election, despite the BoJ’s supportive policy tweak.
- Inflation fell in May, as the ONS chopped 0.1pp off price growth to correct for the error in April’s data.
- Headline CPI at 3.4% in May, down from 3.5%, would have been unchanged without the ONS’s adjustment.
- Energy price increases mean we now expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in September, up from 3.6% before.
- The biggest fall in headline retail sales in two years suggests consumers are starting to tire…
- …More weakness is likely in the coming months, as tariff-induced price rises hit in earnest.
- The further rise in import prices ex-tariffs in May indicates tariff costs are being borne entirely in the US.
- Sticky core inflation and electricity-price risks will likely keep BCCh cautious, despite progress on disinflation.
- Gradual CLP appreciation and subdued domestic demand will allow further rate cuts in Q3.
- Colombia’s MTFF signals rising risks amid political urgency; fiscal relief today, higher debt tomorrow.
- Singapore’s NODX collapsed into the red in May; momentum was fading, front-running has peaked.
- The extent of the resurgence in oil prices, for now, remains no threat to India’s low-inflation climate…
- …Trade data suggest stockpiling when oil prices were falling, but this activity eased markedly in May.
- The BoJ left policy rates unchanged in June, while scaling back its tapering of bond-buying next year…
- …Likely due to bond-market volatility, the stalemate in trade negotiations and tensions in the Middle East.
- We expect the Bank to continue pausing its rate-hiking cycle in the near term as Japan’s economy weakens.
- Official house price inflation will slow in April as stamp-duty disruption feeds through.
- The slowdown will be short-lived, with forward-looking activity indicators improving in May.
- We retain our call for house prices to rise 4.5% year-over-year in 2025.
- The median FOMC member this week probably will envisage easing by just 25bp this year...
- ...But the case for expecting more easing remains robust; signs of labor market weakness are growing.
- The $10pb rise in oil prices will lift the CPI by 0.2%, likely dulling Mr. Trump’s appetite for more tariffs.
- Sticky services and volatile food prices cloud Banxico’s outlook, despite weaker domestic demand.
- Disinflation will resume soon, allowing Banxico to proceed with gradual rate cuts.
- Brazil’s economic growth is slowing in Q2, as agriculture normalises and tight financial conditions bite.
- China’s solid retail sales figure for May was boosted by earlier online retail sales and subsidy policies.
- Manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth are slowing; expect the policy banks to step up soon.
- Policymakers are likely to opt for a mid-year top-up and refinement of targeted support; no big stimulus.
- Five-year household inflation expectations hit a record high in May, adjusting for a break in the BoE’s survey.
- Inflation expectations have surged more since August 2024 than past behaviour would have signalled.
- Elevated inflation expectations mean the MPC cannot simply ‘look through’ above-target inflation.
- CPI and PPI data imply a 0.12% rise in the May core PCE deflator, but 0.3-to-0.4% prints lie straight ahead.
- Momentum in services prices will rebuild in June and July, while retailers will start to pass on tariff costs.
- Jobless claims provide further evidence that the labor market is gradually softening.
- China faces a long-term demographic headwind, as its workforce declines and population ages...
- ...but also an opportunity to shift 20% of the workforce into jobs with productivity three times higher.
- Growth potential will still be substantial after the structural adjustment; plus AI is a wild card.
- Indian inflation dropped to its lowest level in over six years in May, coming in below expectations at 2.8%.
- Food disinflation is still the overriding story, and our daily tracker points to outright deflation here soon.
- We’ve cut our 2025 forecast to 2.8%, but raised our 2026 call to 5.0%, with this year’s base so low.
- The unwinding of tariff and tax-hike front-running dragged down GDP growth in April…
- …But the monthly fall looks exaggerated to us, so we expect GDP to rebound in May.
- We thus only shave our forecast for Q2 GDP growth, to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, from 0.3% previously.
- Changes in import prices rarely feed through instantly to consumer prices; brace for a surge this summer.
- CPI services data remain plagued by residual seasonality; expect much faster increases ahead.
- We still expect core CPI inflation to peak at 3½% in Q4, though that won’t stop the Fed easing.
- Handshakes in London iron out implementation of the US-China deal struck in Geneva, subject to approval.
- The 90-day tariff reprieve revived China’s exports in May, temporarily, with trade diversion to the EU…
- …Uncertainty-induced front-loading demand puts a floor under monthly growth ahead of reprieve expiry.
