Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- Retail sales declined sharply in Brazil, with credit-sensitive segments under the most pressure.
- Services held firm up until June, but PMI data now point to a weakening trend.
- Consumer sentiment is fragile, and high interest rates continue to weigh on household spending.
- The slowdown in EZ GDP growth in Q2 was confirmed, mainly due to weakness in industry.
- Industry will likely be a bigger drag on GDP in Q3, and the strength in construction will not continue.
- The labour market continues to support GDP growth; surveys suggest employment will stay solid.
- GDP growth beat consensus expectations in June, rising by 0.4% month-to-month.
- Quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2 was above the MPC’s latest forecast, 0.1%.
- The expenditure breakdown for GDP in H1 shows household spending growing at a healthy pace.
- We estimate that AI-linked investment lifted GDP growth in H1 2025 by about half a percentage point.
- The aggressive capex plans of the big tech firms suggest a similar boost in the coming quarters.
- July's PPI data likely will show that retailers’ and wholesalers’ margins are being squeezed by tariffs.
- Mexico — Rally slows near resistance
- Argentina — Fragile rebound ahead of elections
- Chile — At record high, set for steady year-end gains
- China’s broad credit growth edged up in July, only thanks to rapid government-bond issuance.
- Credit demand elsewhere appears lacklustre, with net long-term corporate loan repayments.
- Subsidies for consumer and services firm loans are helpful but unlikely to be a game-changer.
- We look for a 1.0% month-to-month rise in retail sales in July as surveys signal healthy consumer spending.
- Households appear confident and comfortable with their assets, so the saving rate should fall in H2.
- Rising inflation, falling jobs and fiscal worries remain risks to the outlook.
- Pass-through from the tariffs to consumer prices slowed in July, but will re-accelerate in the fall.
- The rebound in airline fares has further to run, but services inflation otherwise looks set to moderate.
- The FOMC likely will ease policy next month, despite more tariff-led inflation, to support the labor market.
- Brazil's July IPCA undershot expectations, with the inflation rate easing to 5.2% from 5.4% in June…
- …Falling food and industrial goods prices, plus a stronger BRL, point to continued gradual disinflation.
- We expect the BCRP to hold at 4.50% this week, though a 25bp cut later this year remains possible.
- Payrolls declined by 8K month-to-month in July, the smallest drop in six months.
- Redundancies fell and vacancies look to have stabilised; the worst of the job slowdown is over.
- Private-sector pay growth was below the MPC’s call in Q2, but it remains too high to cut rates rapidly.
- We look for a 1% gain in headline retail sales in July, mostly due to a rebound in auto sales…
- …But underlying sales likely were relatively weak again, with control sales volumes broadly stagnating.
- We think consumers' spending will grow by ½-to-1% in Q3, in keeping with the subdued pace in H1.
- Chile's July CPI jumped, on electricity and services, pushing up inflation for the first time since March.
- BCCh launched an USD18.5B reserve accumulation plan to cut its reliance on a shrinking IMF credit line.
- Colombia’s inflation rose, as structural pressures persist, delaying the prospect of further rate cuts.
- China’s consumer prices are teetering on the brink of deflation, with July’s rate falling back to 0.0%.
- Producer deflation has deepened further. Any progress on anti-involution will take time to appear.
- Trade uncertainty will weigh on factory-gate prices regardless; all eyes are on the 15th five-year plan.
- Public sector borrowing matched the OBR’s expectations to June on a cumulative basis…
- ...but policy U-turns and overoptimistic OBR growth forecasts mean the Chancellor faces a £13B hole.
- We expect back-loaded stealth and ‘sin’ tax hikes to cover most of the £20B gap against headroom.
- This year’s consumer slowdown has little to do with worries about taxes, more with trade and tariffs.
- The recent recovery in sentiment reduces recession risk, but the outlook for spending still is dim.
- Rising continuing claims reinforce the idea that the labor market has loosened materially.
- The Philippines’ Q2 GDP beat expectations slightly, with yearly growth ticking up to 5.5% from 5.4%…
- …But this was down largely to a misleading U-turn in net exports, masking a weakening domestically.
- We reiterate our below-consensus 5.3% forecast for 2025, implying a renewed slowdown in H2.
- China’s FX reserves fell less than the market expected, but still staged the first drop since December.
- The currency-valuation effect was the main downward driver, and the bond-valuation effect to a lesser extent.
- The evolution of China’s FX reserves in H2 hinges critically on the outlook for USD and the Fed.
- The MPC cut by 25bp but was much more hawkish, with a tighter-than-expected 5-to-4 vote in favour.
- The MPC added more cautious guidance, lifted its inflation forecasts and said upside risks had risen.
- So, we maintain our forecast for no more rate cuts this year, which the market moved closer to pricing.
- Swings in home prices have a far bigger dollar-for-dollar wealth effect than movements in stock prices.
- Ongoing weakness in the housing implies a trivial boost to consumption from asset prices in H2 2025.
- Labor-matching efficiency is impeded slightly by high new mortgage rates, but is comparable to the 2010s.
- Brazilian Real — Under strain as trade risk rises
- Mexican Peso — Holding firm amid headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Rally ended by an array of risks
