Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- Brazil’s February inflation confirms the disinflation trend, but the oil-price surge carries upside risk.
- Higher oil prices could delay the COPOM’s easing cycle, keeping financial conditions tight.
- Retail sales started the year strongly, but low confidence signals fragile consumption.
- Malaysian January retail sales volumes dipped on a seasonally adjusted month-to-month basis.
- We expect a mild increase in inflation over the year because of the Middle East crisis...
- …Which could create risks to financial stability, via higher debt, if it doesn’t curb consumer spending.
- China’s exports sustained a robust performance in the first two months of 2026...
- ...Meaning policymakers feel little pressure to spur domestic demand in the near term.
- Falling land sales in the first two months point to sustained property investment weakness.
- Safe-haven flows have pushed the Swiss franc close to record highs against the euro and US dollar.
- The risk of an energy shock has weakened the euro, making it harder for the SNB to weaken the franc.
- Appreciation driven by risk-on sentiment will offset downward pressure from interest rate differentials.
- We expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate on hold next week, with Ms. Dhingra and Mr. Taylor voting for a cut.
- The data flow has been slightly dovish lately, but war in Iran has ripped up the ‘disinflation’ playbook.
- Guidance will shift towards giving rate-setters the option to hike in 2026, if required.
- The year-to-date increase in the core CPI is in line with its 2015-to-19 average.
- Airline fares and used auto prices will soar, but tariff pass-through is mostly over; rents will slow further.
- The core PCE deflator again likely rose more quickly than the core CPI in February, but will slow mid-year.
- Brazil — Weathering volatility; outlook still positive
- Mexico — Absorbing oil shock but holding record highs
- Chile — Supportive domestic backdrop still intact
- Upside risks to EZ inflation are rising by the day, as the war in Iran curtails movement through Hormuz.
- Inflation in refined oil products could stay elevated in Europe even if crude prices fall back.
- Our model currently points to German and EZ HICP inflation at 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively, in March.
- We plot how the 2026 energy surge, and position of the UK economy, compares to 2022.
- Oil and natural-gas prices have so far risen by a similar percentage to 2022, but may be fading sooner.
- More spare capacity exists and M4 growth is slower than in 2022, but inflation expectations are deanchored.
- The highest net balance of small business reported rising sales in February since May 2022...
- ...But elevated uncertainty is keeping capex intentions at multi-year lows, and hiring plans subdued.
- We are revising up our forecast for the January core PCE deflator; prices for legal services soared.
- Headline inflation in Colombia eased in February, but core and services prices continue to rise.
- The minimum-wage shock and indexation threaten to halt disinflation and keep expectations high this year.
- A fragmented Congress and competitive presidential race raise political risk premia across markets.
- The Philippines’ staggered fuel hikes won’t stop inflation from jumping above 3% this month…
- …Vietnam’s much larger adjustment bolsters our view that the SBV will hike rates at least once in H2.
- The modest pace of Indonesian retail sales growth is looking increasingly fragile once again.
- German hard data were mixed in early Q1; industry and retail sales weakened, but net trade jumped.
- Surveys point to strength in manufacturing in Q1, despite January declines in new orders and output.
- The increase in German construction output in January looks odd; we think it will be revised away.
- We expect CPI inflation to be unchanged at 3.0% in February, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Higher core goods inflation—driven by clothes—and airfares should offset weaker services and motor fuels.
- President Trump looking for an Iran exit ramp means we now see inflation peaking at 3.3% in December.
- The core CPI likely rose by 0.2% in February, despite the rebound in used auto prices.
- Nearly all the tariff costs have already come through; snowstorms likely weighed on clothing prices.
- The jump in oil prices to $85pb implies headline CPI inflation will shoot above 3% soon.
- Higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions risk reversing recent disinflation progress across LatAm.
- Banxico likely will pause easing as core inflation remains sticky and external risks intensify.
- Chile’s inflation has cooled below target, but rising oil prices and a weaker CLP now threaten the outlook.
- The spike and projected stickiness in oil prices due to the Middle East unrest is now material for Asia…
- …We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecasts for India and Indonesia to 4.0% and 2.9%, respectively.
- Taiwan’s exports moderated in February amid Lunar New Year noise, but now face serious energy risk.
- China’s consumer inflation in January-February, at 0.8%, was in line with the previous two months.
- Low inflation and sluggish domestic demand leave ample room to absorb an energy-price surge.
- Producer inflation continued to improve in February, thanks to oil and non-ferrous metals prices.
- The ECB will hold fire next week, but the risk of a hawkish shift in communication is now elevated.
- EZ inflation is on track to settle well above the ECB’s target, based on current oil and gas price futures.
- A modest 50bp tightening in Q2, taking interest rates to the higher end of neutral, is now a key risk.
- We expect inflation to trough at 2.6% in June and peak at 3.4% in December, given energy futures yesterday.
- We expect the flash payroll estimate to show a 5K month-to-month fall in February.
- Private-sector wage growth should tick up in January, and surveys suggest stabilisation ahead.
