Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Taiwan’s Q4 GDP growth surged to a blockbuster 12.7%, above the unjustifiable 8.8% consensus...
- …Exports did the heavy lifting, though even we were taken aback by the rebound in consumption.
- The MAS held policy steady; we see little need for tightening with imported inflation still non-existent.
- China’s manufacturing PMIs for January diverged, pointing to robust high-tech versus weak low-tech.
- Soft data for output prices improved, but this likely reflects a narrow set of prices, like non-ferrous metals.
- Construction-sector sentiment slumped to its lowest since the outbreak of Covid, despite policy support.
- The ECB will hold rates steady this week, amid data to suit both hawkish and dovish policymakers.
- German retail sales rose by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, reversing weakness in Q3.
- The Swiss PMIs point to a rebound in growth in early 2026, matching our forecasts.
- Mining output likely rose sharply in December as Brent and Forties loadings surged…
- ...but falling manufacturing activity and energy supply output will drag on GDP growth.
- We expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q4 of 0.1%, but it could tip to 0.2%.
- Tariff revenues will total $29B in January, $5B below October’s peak and $15B below official forecasts.
- More Canadian and Mexican goods than expected have become USMCA compliant, entering tariff-free.
- Solid inventories and plunging imports seem at odds; measurement issues likely are flattering GDP growth.
- Ongoing disinflation, cooling activity and BRL strength allow Brazil's COPOM to prepare for cautious easing…
- …The guidance has shifted to a calibration of easing, making a March rate cut the clear baseline.
- The BCCh held rates, signalling patience as disinflation outpaces expectations; further easing remains likely.
- The Philippines’ Q4 GDP was grim, with growth plummeting to just 3.0%, from 3.9% in Q3…
- …We’ve yet to see signs of a bottom in investment-related indicators, while consumption remains soft.
- We’ve cut our already-below-consensus GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 4.8%, from 5.0%.
- US allies’ visits to China signal geopolitical hedging, but don’t expect genuine economic integration.
- Beijing appears to be organising these visits to isolate Washington, judging by who initiated the invitations.
- Middle powers are hedging against US unpredictability, but economic fragmentation will lead to higher inflation.
- Money supply and credit data signal a stable trend in EZ GDP growth, at 0.3% quarter-to-quarter.
- The headline ESI index jumped to a post-Covid high in January, signalling upside risk to growth.
- ESI selling price expectations eased in January, but upside risk to services inflation lingers.
- House prices jumped in November, leaving our call for a 2.0% year-over-year gain in Q4 2025 on track.
- We expect the market to heat up in 2026, as new buyers return from the sidelines.
- House price inflation should rise to 3.0% by Q4 2026, supported by stronger demand and weak supply.
- Payrolls have slowed further since the FOMC last met and the best indicator of unemployment has jumped.
- Chair Powell was less categorical that the labor market is stabilizing than the statement.
- The Q3 surge in productivity is just a reversion to trend; AI has been only a marginal influence, so far.
- Private firms are turning more optimistic about profits, with good reason, but only in certain sectors...
- ...The AI boom, green energy transition and industrial upgrading are lifting profits for related sectors.
- But Q4 consumer sentiment remained glum, indicating continued sluggish domestic demand this year.
- Private firms are turning more optimistic about profits, with good reason, but only in certain sectors...
- ...The AI boom, green energy transition and industrial upgrading are lifting profits for related sectors.
- But Q4 consumer sentiment remained glum, indicating continued sluggish domestic demand this year.
- EURUSD eyeing 1.20 and beyond adds to the dovish pressure on the ECB ahead of the January HICP…
- …A EURUSD move above 1.22 in coming weeks would likely lower the ECB’s core inflation forecast.
- Italian survey data support our view that a turn in the inventory cycle boosted Q4 GDP.
- We expect the MPC to vote six-to-three to keep Bank Rate on hold at its February 5 meeting.
- The decision is a foregone conclusion, so focus will be on the guidance, which we expect to change little.
- Pay settlements likely slowing only slightly in 2026 will keep the MPC coy about the timing of the next cut.
- The Conference Board’s survey likely overstates the gloom, but confidence is down across most surveys.
- Consumers report the labor market is still worsening; they’re usually right.
- Winter Storm Fern will have little impact on Q1 GDP, but the lift to CPI energy prices will linger into Q2.
- The IPCA-15 confirms Brazil's inflation is contained, pressures localised, and disinflation trends firmly intact.
- Soft demand, a strong BRL and anchored inflation expectations support a March start to rate cuts.
- The external accounts remain relatively solid, allowing gradual Selic cuts without destabilising capital flows.
- China’s A-share markets are surging, despite weak private-sector business sentiment and profits…
- …and are likely to continue to benefit from ample liquidity, from retail investors and overseas earnings.
- Regulators would likely intervene, though, if they view the market rise as too fast or overly based on leverage.
- The EU and India, against a challenging global trade backdrop, have signed the mother of all trade deals.
- Both sides made concessions on agriculture and climate to reach a “win-win” free trade agreement.
- The direct boost to EU GDP from rising exports to India is small, but the indirect lift could be greater.
- The BRC Shop Price Index showed goods inflation hitting a near two-year high in January.
- Strength was widespread and pushes up our January CPI inflation forecast to 3.1%, from 3.0% before.
- We treat the BRC with some caution, yet it carries a warning that inflation pressures may remain elevated.
