Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Retail sales growth in Thailand is still at an absurdly-high double-digit rate; ignoring the rosy headlines…
- …The monthly consumption index remains weak, and fading confidence points to more downside.
- Consumption looks set to continue rising, though, as wages recover alongside productivity.
- The PBoC on Friday hinted it saw less need for a near- term monetary policy boost than three months ago.
- The June official manufacturing PMI improved, thanks to policy support and an easing in tariff tensions.
- The construction PMI ticked up at last, but it’s too soon to celebrate; the hard data pointed to slowing.
- An upward revision to Q1 consumer spending growth gives a more solid base to economic growth.
- The household saving rate dip in Q1 is a sign of things to come, which should support consumer spending.
- Firms are borrowing again as all the “Liberation Day” surge in economic policy uncertainty has unwound.
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% decline in real expenditure in May...
- ...One-time factors likely drove the drop, but the Q3 outlook for real after-tax income growth is bleak.
- 3% GDP growth looks likely in Q2, as the unwinding of tariff distortions obscures underlying weakness.
- Banxico cuts rates, but rising inflation and Board split signal slower, more cautious easing ahead.
- Disinflation is emerging in Brazil, but policy is still tight amid lingering core pressures and fiscal uncertainty…
- …The Selic will likely be held at 15%, as the BCB sees easing risks outweighing fragile disinflation.
- Mr. Powell refrained from providing lawmakers with triggers and timings for the intended policy easing in H2...
- ...But 2024’s small upside unemployment surprise drove a rapid pivot; expect a repeat, despite the tariffs.
- GDPNow’s 3.4% projection for Q2 growth looks about right; underlying momentum is about half that figure.
- The BoT yesterday left the policy rate steady after two consecutive cuts, in line with our expectation.
- The MPC’s worst fears at the April meeting have been averted, leading to an upgrade to its GDP call.
- We maintain that 1.75% is the terminal rate, though the risks are still clearly skewed to the downside.
- Official payroll data are vastly exaggerating the weakness in the job market, in our view.
- May’s payrolls reading is especially unreliable, while the official data have diverged hugely from surveys.
- Job vacancies seem to be stabilising, redundancies are low and jobless claims are down since October.
- Homebase data point to a mere 100K rise in June payrolls; Conference Board data point to even worse.
- No other reliable indicators of payroll growth are due to be released, so we likely will maintain our 100K forecast.
- The April surge in new home sales looks very fishy: we expect a slump in May.
- The benign inflation report supports a 50bp cut, but a divided Banxico will likely slow the easing pace in H2.
- Services inflation is sticky; housing, wage and food costs are delaying disinflation despite a MXN rebound.
- Private demand and capex lead growth in Argentina, but external imbalances and fiscal risks remain high.
- Taiwan’s retail sales fell for a second straight month, because of a slump in vehicle sales...
- ...Reports suggest consumers are holding off purchases, hoping for a reduction in import tariffs.
- Malaysian inflation fell to its lowest in 51 months, due to a decline in services inflation.
- Japan’s June headline flash manufacturing index was lifted by output, but demand remained subdued.
- Cost pressures are easing only slowly, with global oil prices a key risk.
- The service sector continues to be bolstered by tourism, notably surging Chinese visitor numbers.
- Collapsing payrolls in May look inconsistent with stable or improving survey-based measures of jobs.
- The soft data suggest the worst of the slowdown caused by the payroll-tax hike is behind us.
- Stable economic growth, driven by less trade-related uncertainty, will give a hawkish tint to the job data.
- S&P reports brisk employment growth in June, but itsindex has been a very poor guide to payrolls since 2023.
- The output price index signals an implausibly large pick- up in core goods CPI inflation ahead.
- The unwinding of a one-time uplift to Social Security payments probably dragged on income growth in May.
- A rebound in manufacturing and services lifted Mexico’s output in April, but momentum is weak.
- Consumption faces pressure from high rates, labour-market stress, and fading support from remittances.
- Colombia’s proposed ballot sidesteps legal processes, raising institutional fears.
- India’s flash PMIs for June were robust, but note they remain susceptible to huge downgrades…
- …And they’re still down year-over-year in Q2, indicating big downside risk to GDP forecasts.
- Other details show waning optimism over the long run, and downward pressure building on core CPI.
- Korea’s 20-day export growth rebounded, likely supported by stockpiling as the US’s deadline nears.
- Shipments to the US, EU and Taiwan were the main drivers, while chip exports were strong in June.
- The trade-talk logjam continues; we expect the grace period to be extended, allowing more negotiating time.
- The PMI’s headline activity index rose in June but still signals unchanged quarter-to-quarter GDP in Q2…
- …But we think the PMI continues to underestimate activity and retain our call for GDP growth of 0.2%.
- The services output balance fell sharply in June, but that drop looks erratic; the MPC will wait for clarity.
- Many FOMC participants raised their rate forecasts, but Mr. Powell says “no one... has a lot of conviction”.
- The Committee is overlooking several indicators that point to a material rise in unemployment ahead.
- The slump in single family construction is deepening, another headwind to activity and employment.
- Brazil — Bolsonaro probe deepens, fiscal risks rise
- Mexico — Judicial reform starting to backfire
- Colombia — Violence, reform and fiscal crisis
