Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- India’s PMIs continue to shrug off the tariff noise— even the 50% threat—with the August data punchy…
- …Partial Q3 PMIs point to a continuation of near-7% GDP growth, but watch the slump in future output.
- Our final forecast for next week’s Q2 GDP report is 7%, implying only a minor cooling from 7.4% in Q1.
- Higher tariffs hurt Japan’s car and steel exporters in July, with export values seeing precipitous declines.
- Car export prices to the US are still falling in USD terms, but more slowly. Exporters are absorbing costs.
- Japan’s flash composite PMI has slid for three straight months but points to stronger domestic demand in July.
- The PMIs suggest higher US tariffs are weighing on export orders, as we expected…
- ...But the EZ economy is still resilient; the composite PMI edged up to a 15-month high in August.
- Price pressures rose again, implying the risk to our call for an ECB rate cut in September is for no cut.
- The PMI beat expectations and rose to a 12-month high in August.
- August’s flash PMI is consistent with quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q3.
- Sticky inflation and strong growth mean the MPC will need to stay on hold for the rest of 2025.
- Home sales have remained very weak despite recoveries in both supply and mortgage applications.
- That suggests to us that asking prices are too high, and need to come down for the market to clear.
- Home prices have already fallen by about 1% since March and we think a further grind lower lies ahead.
- Bank Indonesia surprised again this month by lowering the BI rate by a further 25bp to 5.00%…
- …We reiterate our 4.75% end-2025 call; the recent food CPI pop is skin-deep and the core is fading.
- Malaysian exports surprised everyone by expanding in July, after two months of contraction.
- Stable inflation in July was confirmed; the core held steady but food and energy inflation rose.
- Higher inflation is on the cards, as energy deflation continues to unwind and food inflation climbs.
- For now, though, we think a fall in core inflation will convince the ECB to push through another rate cut.
- Food, energy-price increases and an erratic jump in airfares drove CPI inflation up to 3.8%.
- Underlying services inflation is easing but remains far too high for the MPC to cut rapidly.
- Headline CPI averaging 3.8% for the rest of 2025 means the MPC will have to stay on hold.
- The One Big Beautiful Bill Act includes sharp cuts to federal health spending, mostly affecting Medicaid.
- That will probably be a minor long-term headwind for the sector in the coming years.
- But the hit will take time to arrive, and the long-term tailwind from an ageing population looks far bigger.
- The PBoC on Monday gave no hint of imminent easing, despite July’s underwhelming activity data.
- China is likely to go slow on further policy support, so it has options if trade talks with the US hit a wall.
- The property market is worsening again, putting developer finances under pressure.
- The EZ current account surplus widened in June, despite a sharp drop in the goods trade balance.
- Services trade was a boost to GDP in Q2, unlike goods trade.
- Foreign investors are funnelling into EZ assets, but this isn’t a new Trump-era trend.
- Sterling has had a mixed year so far against peers, as policy uncertainty has soared.
- We expect less easing than the market, but fiscal worries will weigh on sterling come Budget time.
- Pantheon’s interest rate calls collectively imply cable at 1.35 and GBPEUR at 1.18 at end-2025.
- Thai GDP growth in Q2 was largely in line with expectations, cooling to 2.8% from 3.2%…
- …Export front-loading was still a big part of the story, but this lift should now unwind quickly in H2.
- We still see a broad slowdown, but our 2025 and 2026 forecasts now stand at 2.0% and 1.8%.
- Foreigners are not “paying” for President Trump’s tariffs: pre-tariff import prices are holding steady…
- …That leaves US consumers and businesses shouldering nearly all of the additional costs.
- Homebase data point to a rebound in private payrolls, but likely give a misleading signal.
- The hit to EZ goods trade from higher US tariffs is visible in the nominal monthly figures.
- Goods trade was a drag on EZ GDP in Q2, mainly due to a fall in exports to the US in April to June.
- We suspect the nominal goods trade surplus will turn to a deficit in Q3.
- The ONS’s measure of house prices rebounded by 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May.
- Activity indicators and gains in the private-sector house price indices suggest another rise in June.
- Sticky interest rates are a risk to house price inflation, but we retain our call for prices to gain 3.75% in 2025.
- We estimate the core PCE deflator rose by 0.26% in July; most relevant PPI components rose modestly.
- The rise in distributors’ margins in the PPI is implausible, given surging tariff revenues and CPI data.
- We think hopes for a near-term “reshoring boost” to manufacturing look misplaced.
- Retail sales declined sharply in Brazil, with credit-sensitive segments under the most pressure.
- Services held firm up until June, but PMI data now point to a weakening trend.
- Consumer sentiment is fragile, and high interest rates continue to weigh on household spending.
- The slowdown in EZ GDP growth in Q2 was confirmed, mainly due to weakness in industry.
- Industry will likely be a bigger drag on GDP in Q3, and the strength in construction will not continue.
- The labour market continues to support GDP growth; surveys suggest employment will stay solid.
- GDP growth beat consensus expectations in June, rising by 0.4% month-to-month.
- Quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2 was above the MPC’s latest forecast, 0.1%.
- The expenditure breakdown for GDP in H1 shows household spending growing at a healthy pace.
