Pantheon Publications

7 April 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor GDP downgrades and more rate cuts, in the wake of 'Liberation Day'

• The US ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs have led to cuts of 0.1-to-0.7pp to several of our 2025 GDP forecasts…
• …Vietnam’s outperformance has shrunk materially; India won’t enjoy as much of an import-drop offset.
• We now see the SBV restarting cuts to the tune of 50bp, and have added a fourth cut to our RBI view.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, March

• In one line: The nascent improvement is far from comprehensive.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 April 2025

The nascent improvement in ASEAN manufacturing is far from comprehensive

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 April 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor A manufacturing and export health-check, just before 'Liberation Day'

• The manufacturing PMIs for India and ASEAN have regained momentum recently; Taiwan is wobbling…
• …But the pick-up within ASEAN is skewed; expect domestic demand’s outperformance to continue.
• Regional export volumes are hovering above trend, implying they could stomach a big hit from tariffs.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 April 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Ignore softness of India's February core IP; real headwinds await

• Core production growth in India fell to a five-month low in February, due partly to residual seasonality.
• The plunge in refined petroleum products output growth is real though, with more softness likely.
• The bright spots—steel and cement—should soon feel the pinch of a waning public infra drive.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Core Industries, India, February

• In one line: Blame mainly an unsurprising reversal of the January jump in petroleum products.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 April 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Reasons to be hopeful after a poor start to 2025 for Thai retail

• Retail sales growth in Thailand sank to -1% in January, but volatile ‘other’ sales are to blame.
• The nascent post-stimulus recovery in confidence is wobbling, and could be hit further by the quake…
• …Fundamentally, though, labour productivity is improving, boding well for future wage growth.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia