Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: CPI, India, April

• In one line: More food disinflation to come in May; the 2025 consensus remains far too high.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, April

• In one line: More food disinflation to come in May; the 2025 consensus remains far too high.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 8 May 2025

Huge bounce in Philippine imports masks a broad-based Q1 improvement

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 May 2025

An overdue—and big—m/m correction in Philippine sales to close Q1

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 May 2025

Front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US looks to have hit a ceiling
A quiet start to Q2 for retail sales in Vietnam, following a robust Q1
Lots of moving parts, but April saw no change to Vietnamese inflation
Below-target-range inflation in the Philippines looks set to persist until year-end
This bout of Thai deflation should be short and shallow

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, April

• In one line: Electricity discounts are now well and truly a thing of the past.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 May 2025

Indonesia’s electricity discounts are now well and truly a thing of the past

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, February

• In one line: Ignore the inflated headline, but households had a decent Q1.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

• In one line: Compelled by the US’ tariff war, and allowed for by a resumption of sub-1% inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

• In one line: Compelled by the US’ tariff war, and allowed for by a resumption of sub-1% inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 30 April 2025

Underneath the surface; a weak close to a robust Q1 for Philippine trade

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, March

• In one line: Capping off an unremarkable Q1.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, March

• In one line: Capping off an unremarkable Q1.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 25 April 2025

Bigger US front-loading drives Thai export growth to a 3-year high

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: Easing back on; three more cuts to go, from our vantage point.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: Easing back on; three more cuts to go, from our vantage point.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision

• In one line: Expect at least two more consecutive 25bp cuts.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 April 2025

Expect at least two more consecutive 25bp cuts from the RBI

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, March

• In one line: Short-lived, policy-induced deflation is over.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 8 April 2025

Short-lived, policy-induced deflation in Indonesia is over
How high can Philippine sales go before they hit a ceiling?

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia