Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- Indonesian GDP growth rebounded slightly to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.9% in Q3, in line with expectations...
- ...But the uptick owes a lot to inventories, which can’t be relied on, with external demand still fragile.
- Private domestic demand ended 2023 softly; we still expect annual growth to slip to 4.8% this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines cooled only modestly in Q4 to 5.6%, from 6.0% in Q3...
- ...Trade and government spending were big drags, offset inconsequentially by inventories and noise.
- Fixed investment was the only real bright spot, but this is also benefiting still from the Covid catch-up.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s partial trade numbers for January point to a sharp monthly correction in two-way flows.
- The absolute retail sales numbers cast a lot of doubt over the supposedly gentle slide in growth.
- Headline inflation is likely to remain sticky in H1, but it should inevitably follow the core rate down.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean non-oil domestic export growth fell into the red in December, as we predicted...
- ...With support to the headline from volatile categories unwinding, and electronics weakening.
- Sticking to our Q2 call for BI rate cuts; policy easing has started in less urgent conditions in the past.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Net trade will likely shave 0.4pp off Indonesia's Q4 GDP growth, supporting our soft 4.7% forecast...
- ...But the underlying trends are positive; import base effects and stalling tourism will be to blame.
- India’s trade gap has narrowed swiftly from the record low in October; we examine the main drivers.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- CPI inflation in India rose modestly in December, to 5.7%, on the back of a—final—leap in food inflation.
- The core inflation picture keeps improving; ultimately this will dictate the path of the headline.
- The year-long upswing in industrial production growth is over, leaving aside the acute Diwali noise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We look for a massive downward surprise in India’s December CPI, as onion prices have collapsed.
- Unofficial core inflation likely softened further too, falling below 4% for the first time since end-2019.
- Indonesian retail sales growth slowed unexpectedly in November; sub-zero prints are around the corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s 7.3% advance estimate for 2023/24 GDP growth implies a consensus-beating Q4 and Q1...
- ...But the PMIs already point to a big expectations miss in Q4; at least core price pressures are fading.
- Base effects and vehicle sales play starring roles in Singapore’s retail sales in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s scorching Q4 GDP print is no ‘mission accomplished’; the result is somewhat misleading.
- Sequential momentum appears to have peaked in Q3, and the Q4 jump in industry looks fragile.
- The second half of 2023 benefited hugely from the initial—and likely unrepeatable—bounce in exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia’s rebranded benchmark rate—the BI rate —was held at 6.00%, as universally expected.
- BI understandably urged caution on food inflation, but base effects here will soon give a helping hand.
- With the core still subdued, the headline should fall below BI’s new target in Q2, paving the way for cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas left its target reverse repo rate at 6.50% this month, as expected.
- The Board’s statement still sounds very hawkish, but we think this facade is starting to crumble…
- …Governor Remolona has been MIA, and we see no belief behind their 4.2% inflation forecast for 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Underlying the softer-than-expected November bounce in Indian inflation is fading food pressures…
- …We’re happy with our below-consensus 3.5% call for 2024, especially with core inflation still falling.
- We see no reason to celebrate IP growth leaping to a 16-month high in October; it’s just Diwali noise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian retail sales grow th has made a steady recovery lately, but historically it remains sub-par…
- … A return to the red in Q1 can’t be ruled out; catchup growth will weaken and confidence is fading.
- Malaysian retail sales grow th drops to a 22-month low, as slowing real wage growth takes its toll.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s brief spell of CPI deflation should end in January, despite November’s downside surprise.
- We still believe average inflation will fall sharply in 2024, even if power tariffs shoot up next month.
- Sales growth in the Philippines kicked off Q4 poorly, but the nascent and fragile recovery remains intact.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s PMIs combined, are the softest they’ve been in a year, pointing clearly to a GDP payback in Q4.
- Food inflation in the Philippines is reversing, but don’t forget about entrenched core disinflation.
- Singaporean retail sales growth has fallen to an eight-month low, but fundamentals remain strong.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in India slowed trivially in Q3, to 7.6%, but the flattery of discrepancies remains absurd.
- The drop in consumption growth is no one-off; finances are weakening and the credit binge is over.
- The impact of tightening is surfacing more clearly in M3, with cash growth down and deposit growth up.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
