Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Emerging Asia Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)

16 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian export growth returns, not with a bang but a whimper

  • Indonesian export growth rose back up above zero in April for the first time in 11 months, to 1.7%…
  • …But this was mostly thanks to favourable technicalities; exports are still broadly stagnating.
  • A durable return to positive growth should ensue in H2, in large part due to commodity prices.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, April

  • In one line: A 13-month high, as upstream deflationary forces wane.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 14 May 2024

Will the Q1 strength in Indonesian sales carry over to Q2?

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Potentially August or bust for the RBI's first rate cut

  • Inflation in India continued to slip trivially in April, but we see some positive underlying trends in food.
  • The RBI has a narrow window to start easing in Q3, with the room allowed by low core CPI set to vanish.
  • Indonesian retail sales saw a promising Q1 revival, but hold judgement until Ramadan effects wane.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor India's soft March IP in context; high time for payback in GDP

  • Indian IP missed expectations in March, with growth slowing to 4.9%, from 5.6% in February…
  • …More softness is likely this quarter, with trends at the margin unspectacular; ignore the rosy PMIs.
  • An overdue payback in GDP growth to the tune of 0.6pp is likely in Q1, based purely on the IP signal.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, April

  • In one line: Food inflation remains frustratingly sticky; clearer signs that core has bottomed-out.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, March

  • In one line: Soft, as we cautioned, and the big picture isn’t looking great either.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 May 2024

A very quiet start to the year for the Philippine economy, especially in private domestic demand
Malaysian retail sales growth rises in March, despite a drop in wholesale growth

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Weak consumers still point to a 2024 slowdown in the Philippines

  • GDP growth in the Philippines inched up to 5.7% in Q1, from 5.5% in Q4, but fell short of the consensus.
  • We have raised our 2024 GDP forecast to 5.2%, still implying a drop from 2023; consumption is frail.
  • The post-Covid catch-up in investment still has legs, but plunging building permits is a big red flag.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 8 May 2024

The H2 2023 recovery in Philippine sales hit a big speed-bump in Q1
Not the kind of deficit reduction we’d like to see

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Forget electricity prices, focus on sticky services inflation in Taiwan

  • Inflation in Taiwan surprisingly fell in April, as fears over the electricity-tariff hike proved overblown…
  • …But slowing goods disinflation and sticky services inflation will make a further moderation tougher.
  • Philippine inflation also shocked to the downside in April; a June rate cut is still live.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 May 2024

April CPI stays unexpectedly within the BSP's target range

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Temporary election-related boosts hid holes in Indonesia's Q1 GDP

  • GDP growth in Indonesia ticked up to 5.1% in Q1, from 5.0% in Q4, in line with the consensus…
  • …But thanks largely to a big—and unsustainable—election-period jump in government expenditure.
  • The Q4 inventories lift disappeared overnight, with exports still flailing, while capex softened noticeably.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Thailand's Q1 GDP likely to bring nothing but disappointment

  • Our final forecast for Thailand’s Q1 GDP sees growth slowing to just 0.7%, from 1.7% in Q4…
  • …The slowdown in consumption is the main drag, alongside the fading yearly lift from net trade.
  • The six-month bout of CPI deflation ended in April, as food and transport inflation returned to the black.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 May 2024

Export-oriented ASEAN manufacturers continue to underperform
Food inflation in Indonesia finally turns a corner; more of this, please

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Much-needed reality check for the recovery in ASEAN exports

  • The turnaround in ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI remains largely intact, despite the April slip…
  • …But the region’s more export-oriented countries are still underperforming; orders remain in the red.
  • Indonesian inflation saw a positive downside surprise in April, as food inflation turned a corner.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, March

  • In one line: Decent, and the drag from refined petroleum products should reverse in the short run.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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