Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: Activity falters in November; growth constraints persist.
- In one line: Activity falters in November; growth constraints persist.
- Activity in Argentina slipped in November, exposing weak momentum after the mid-term elections…
- …Manufacturing and commerce output fell sharply, while growth is focused on low-employment sectors.
- BCCh will pause amid easing inflation, BCB will hold despite stickiness, and BanRep will tighten as risks rise.
- In one line: Retail sales stabilises, but risks remain.
- Inflation is still contained in Mexico, but excise taxes and services are slowing the final stage of disinflation.
- Sticky core inflation and firmer consumption argue for Banxico to pause after an extended easing cycle.
- Trade uncertainty, tariffs and USMCA risk reinforce the need for cautious policy in H1.
- Brazil — Legal battles and electoral risk
- Colombia — Risk premium rises ahead of elections
- Peru — Politics unsettled, markets remain resilient
- US - Have foreign businesses eaten the increase in US tariffs?
- EUROZONE - Greenland now the epicentre of a frayed EU-US relationship
- UK - GDP growth in Q4 will beat the MPC’s forecast
- CHINA+ - PBoC focusing on targeted support to further strategic goals
- EM ASIA - Malaysian Q4 GDP surprises to the upside, thanks again to the AI boom
- LATAM - Mexico’s consumption leads and capex lags; Brazil’s activity stabilising
- Argentina’s inflation fell sharply over 2025, though momentum is fading as utility tariffs normalise…
- …Fiscal discipline and a redesigned FX regime will determine whether inflation falls close to 20% in 2026.
- Primary weakness weighed on November activity in Peru, but underlying growth momentum is strong.
- In one line: Activity rebounds in November, but momentum remains weak.
- In one line: Activity rebounds in November, but momentum remains weak.
- Household spending gains traction in Mexico, while capex remains weak on policy and trade uncertainty.
- The USMCA review adds volatility, delaying the capex recovery and reinforcing consumption-led growth.
- November’s activity rebound stabilises growth in Brazil, but tight financial conditions still constrain its recovery.
- In one line: Retail stabilizing after prolonged weakness.
- Brazil’s H2 slowdown reflects tight financial conditions; agriculture and retail prevent a worse picture.
- Retail and services are showing a tentative stabilisation, while industry is struggling under restrictive credit.
- Disinflation and softer activity set the stage for cautious COPOM easing starting in March.
- US - December CPI suggests tariff pass-through is slowing
- EUROZONE - With friends like this…; how can the EU react as Trump eyes Greenland?
- UK - GDP likely rose in November despite pre-Budget uncertainty
- CHINA+ - China’s inflation firms in December, but sustained reflation still tricky
- EM ASIA - Reasons to believe Vietnam’s Q4 GDP growth shock is the peak
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation hits target range; Mexico’s industry finds its footing
- Brazil — Retesting records as rate-cut bets return
- Mexico — Hitting records on positive sectoral news
- Colombia — Firm flows, and election in focus
- Sticky services inflation and high indexation leave Colombia far from target, despite modest relief in Q4.
- A 23% minimum-wage increase threatens to entrench inflation persistence and delay long-term convergence.
- BanRep faces pressure to tighten aggressively as expectations rise and LatAm peers’ prices stabilise.
- Chile’s CPI surprised to the downside in December, as goods deflation deepened and core pressures eased…
- …A firmer CLP and slowing wages are anchoring inflation, leaving policy rates close to neutral.
- Low inflation, neutral rates and FX management mean BCRP is well positioned as election risks build.
- In one line: Inflation rises marginally, but disinflation remains on track.
- In one line: Under pressure, despite modest manufacturing gains.
- In one line: President Boluarte removed; uncertainty persists but economy remains resilient.
