- A record agricultural harvest fuelled Brazil’s Q1 growth, but momentum is likely to slow.
- Services and capex held up, while industrial output shrank due to restrictive monetary policy.
- The job market’s resilience complicates the COPOM’s position, but conditions will deteriorate soon enough.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- No formal steps towards constitutional change have been taken, yet, despite Mr. Petro’s fiery rhetoric.
- Low protest turnout and legislative hurdles suggest Mr. Petro’s political project is losing momentum fast.
- Peru’s economy started 2025 strongly, supported by primary sectors and resilient domestic demand.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation eases slightly, but risks persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US- Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
- UK-Strong growth and inflation mean an August skip
- EZ-Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
- CHINA- Growth worries likely to delay the BoJ’s rate normalisation
- EM ASIA- BI’s easing cycle back in play, with 75bp more cuts by end-2025
- LATAM -Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, with transportation prices falling and only a modest rise in food prices.
- The strong BRL, falling commodity prices and softening demand signal continued disinflation in H2.
- The fiscal outlook is fragile, despite short-term gains, with rigid spending and political resistance to reform.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s current account deficit narrowed sharply in Q1, thanks to resilient exports and remittance inflows.
- Financial inflows weakened amid US trade tensions, global volatility, and domestic political uncertainty.
- The proposed US remittance tax and economic slow- down threaten to disrupt Mexico’s external stability.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Mexico’s economy outperforms in Q1, but risks loomlarge.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- An agricultural rebound drove headline GDP growth in Mexico in Q1, offsetting weakness elsewhere.
- Services and industrial output fell, suggesting the economy is heavily exposed to shocks.
- Persistent inflation, especially in services, complicates Banxico’s easing path amid deteriorating conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Political and fiscal risks escalating
- Mexico — Stability tested by violence and reform
- Colombia — Mr. Petro’s reform agenda faces headwinds
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - How stimulative will fiscal policy be if the “Big Beautiful Bill” passes?
- EUROZONE - Swiss economy galloping in 2025, though growth is now slowing
- UK - MPC preview: dovish shift, but not as much as the market expected
- CHINA+ - Japan’s weak Q1 GDP print reinforces BoJ’s decision to pause
- EM ASIA - US front-running boosts Thailand’s Q1, but it’s all downhill from here
- LATAM - Banxico delivers another 50bp rate cut amid weak growth
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Chile’s Q1 GDP beat expectations, led by services and government spending, despite a drag from mining.
- Its external accounts improved in Q1 at the headline level, despite portfolio outflows and income deficits.
- The investment outlook is brighter, given less political risk, but structural issues and uncertainty loom large.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Q1 surge driven by agriculture; broader gains show resilience.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Q1 surge driven by agriculture; broader gains show resilience.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Q1 growth solid, but momentum set to ease.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic activity surged in Q1, driven by agriculture and resilience in industry and services…
- …Momentum is likely to wane as tighter financial conditions and global uncertainty take hold.
- Colombia’s real GDP rose strongly in Q1, thanks to domestic demand, but structural risks persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Solid start to the year, but risks loom.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Banxico cuts again but strikes a cautious tone.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- Banxico cut rates again, but its tone was more cautious due to the recent uptick in Mexico’s inflation.
- Economic activity is weak, and inflation is within the target range, supporting the case for further easing.
- Argentina’s inflation slowed sharply in April, defying expectations after the FX liberalisation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Retail finishes Q1 strongly, but headwinds still limit momentum.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico delivered another unanimous 50bp cut, to 8.50%, and pointed to more easing ahead.
- Brazil’s resilient consumption masks mounting pressures from inflation and weak services…
- …Tighter financial conditions are also a drag, but retail and labour data offer cautious optimism.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
