- In one line: Modest core pressures point to further monetary easing this month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The initial estimate of a brisk 272K rise in May payrolls likely will be revised down, given many weak indicators.
- The case for firms to hoard staff is weakening as the unemployment rate grinds higher.
- The unwinding of a calendar quirk drove May’s jump in average hourly earnings; the trend still is slowing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico eyes further monetary easing amid subdued core inflation, but politics are now a huge threat.
- Chile’s inflation likely will resume its downtrend despite the recent uptick, thanks to the CLP rebound.
- Rising electricity tariffs, however, pose an upside risk to the inflation outlook; the BCCh is on the alert.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A mixed performance on a sequential basis, but downside risk
prevailing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Homebase data were revised as we expected, so we are sticking with our 180K May payroll forecast.
- Rising jobless claims and the NFIB’s very weak hiring intentions index signal soft summer payrolls.
- We look for a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings; a calendar quirk points to slight upside risk.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The MXN has steadied after the election shock, but populist reform fears linger.
- A mixed start for Brazilian industry in Q2, but the floods in the south have dented the outlook.
- The rebound will resume in H2 but faces headwinds from still-tight financial conditions and weak demand.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
ADP is too unreliable to take seriously, though it’s consistent with our payroll forecast.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We expect EURUSD to weaken by 8% to 1.18 by year-end, as the Fed eases faster than the ECB.
- Initial claims likely rose last week; public holidays depress them less now than seasonal adjustment assumes.
- The ISM services index is an unreliable guide to activity, but a weak employment balance points to trouble ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazilian Real — Tumbling amid policy uncertainty
- Mexican Peso — Hurt by MORENA’s landslide victory
- Argentinian Peso — Plunges amid policy uncertainty
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A solid Q1, but conditions have worsened recently.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A solid Q1, but conditions have worsened recently.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - Core PCE numbers are improving, but more progress needed for rate cuts
- EUROZONE - All set for a hawkish first 25bp rate cut by the ECB this week
- UK - Forecast review: Persistence means patience for the MPC
- CHINA+ - US tariffs on “new trio” to have limited impact on Chinese exports
- EM ASIA - The devil’s in the details of India’s consensus-beating Q1 GDP print
- LATAM - Landslide victory in Mexico gives MORENA strong political capital
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The drop in the Atlanta Fed Q2 GDPNow estimate says very little; it's still far more model than tracking.
- April's JOLTS report brings further signs of labor market normalization. Lower wage growth is likely to follow.
- ADP's data and the employment index of the ISM services survey are hopeless indicators of payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s economic rebound faces a number of headwinds despite solid Q1 growth.
- High interest rates and severe floods will dampen Brazil’s growth prospects over the coming quarters.
- Inflation in Peru cooled in May, paving the way for further rate cuts amid policy uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Under pressure on a sequential basis.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Under pressure on a sequential basis.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A landslide victory for Ms Sheinbaum.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The quits rate likely remained just below its 2015-to-19 average in April, signalling slower ECI growth ahead.
- Construction spending has stagnated this year, the boom in S&L and manufacturing spending is over.
- The ISM manufacturing slipped again in May. And a plunge in new orders signals more bad news ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Claudia Sheinbaum makes history after being elected as Mexico’s first female president.
- Ms. Sheinbaum’s victory was expected, but a potential MORENA supermajority brings uncertainty.
- The Chilean economic activity index rebounded in April, but disappointing details point to rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS SUBPAR...
- ...BUT LOW INFLATION IS ALLOWING GRADUAL INTEREST RATE CUTS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
