Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Mexico’s economy did well in Q3 due chiefly to stronger services, but the good news won’t last.
- Growth momentum is easing; higher borrowing costs are triggering a slowdown in consumption.
- Interest rate cuts are coming, as the minutes of the last meeting suggest, but in Q4?
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexican retail sales volumes fell in September for the third consecutive month, and will continue to decline.
- Leading indicators point to a broad-based slowdown in Q4 and Q1, as tighter financial conditions bite.
- This, coupled with rapidly easing core inflation pressures, will allow Banxico to cut soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- U.S. - The Pre-conditions for 2% Inflation are Mostly in Place
- EUROZONE- The EZ inflation data remain consistent with a March cut,to us
- U.K. - CPI Inflation Falling Quickly Enough for the MPC to Start Easing in Q2
- CHINA+ - China’s Property Developers Continue to Flounder
- EM ASIA - Collapse in Imports Saves Thai Q3 GDP from Complete Disaster
- LATAM - Milei’s Victory Presages Radical Change in Argentina; Will It Be Good?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The upturn in jobless claims bears close attention, though it’s much too soon to panic.
- Ignore the wild durable goods headline; core capex orders are rising, but other data are less benign.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely will respond to cheaper gasoline; will inflation expectations do the same?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chile’s gradual recovery will continue in Q4, but GDP remains below its pre-pandemic trend...
- ...Subpar growth and limited inflation pressures will allow the BCCh to keep cutting rates in H1.
- Activity will gather speed next year, but El Niño and geopolitical risks are key threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
THE FED IS DONE, AND WILL START EASING IN SPRING...
- ...BUT THE FOMC WON’T ABANDON OPTIONALITY JUST YET
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: Milei victory presages radical change in Argentina; but a highly fragmented Congress will be a big hurdle.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A decent Q3, but more interest rate cuts are needed.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Homebase small business employment data point to a hefty rebound in November payrolls...
- ...But the margin of error in all payroll forecasts is huge; the seasonals are an intractable problem.
- No bottom yet for existing home sales, but supply is edging up, and valuations are falling as incomes rise.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Libertarian Javier Milei wins Argentina’s presidential election; the less bad option for the battered country.
- Argentina’s prospects will improve if Congress allows Milei to ‘take a hacksaw’ to the state.
- Brazil’s economy struggled in Q3, opening the door to bigger rate cuts if fiscal pragmatism prevails.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy dodged a technical recession in Q3, but growth prospects remain gloomy.
- Elevated political uncertainty and stiflingly high interest rates continue to drag down investment.
- Conditions likely will improve in Q1, as BanRep starts to ease rates, but Petro’s policy will remain a threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The supply-side factors we wanted to see in order to push inflation back down have all now normalized…
- Excess demand is the last piece of the jigsaw; the lagged hit from the Fed’s hike will take care of it.
- As demand moderates, gross margins will fall, pushing inflation back to target, and perhaps below it.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Most of the October weakness reflects the UAW strike; expect a November rebound.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)US
Layoffs hit 12-week high, but remain below cycle peaks, for now
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The rebound in jobless claims in recent weeks is not yet definitive evidence of a shift in the trend.
- The multi-family housing construction boom is over, though single-family starts are still rising.
- The steep drops in manufacturing output and homebuilder sentiment reported yesterday won’t last.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Opinion polls are pointing to a knife-edge result in this Sunday’s presidential election in Argentina.
- Uncertainty is high, but the near-term outlook is clear: expect an FX sell-off, high inflation and recession.
- The next president will have a difficult job getting the economy back on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The House Continuing Resolution kicks the can down the road to January and February; it solves nothing.
- October's retail sales numbers are consistent with a clear slowing in Q4 consumption growth.
- PPI disinflation continues; the October numbers, alongside the CPI, signal a 0.25% core PCE print.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Fiscal uncertainty back in the spotlight
- Argentina — Anything can happen on Sunday
- Colombia — Resounding defeat for President Petro
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
