- Brazil — A solid start to the year as sentiment improves
- Mexico — A solid rebound, but threats remain
- Colombia — Economic tailwinds offset political noise
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - Stabilizing jobs numbers remove the need for near-term Fed easing
- EUROZONE - Another day, another tariff threat, this time on steel and aluminium
- UK - Focus on hawkish forecasts rather than two votes for a 50bp cut
- CHINA+ - China’s holiday spending is robust, but it won’t last
- EM ASIA - Malhotra’s RBI debut was both no shock and unexpectedly reassuring
- LATAM - Banxico accelerates easing, but US policy will influence the outlook
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Brazil’s inflation dipped slightly in January, but the near-term outlook remains bleak…
- …But pressures will ease in H2 as weakening domestic and external demand weigh on inflation.
- A very, very ugly outlook for Mexico’s industrial sector under Trump 2.0; it could be avoided though.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s disinflation has paused, complicating BanRep’s efforts to support activity.
- Increased political noise, elevated fiscal strain and external uncertainty are challenges for policymakers.
- Chile’s electricity-tariff hike sparks an inflation surge, dimming hopes for further rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A larger cut; improving inflation outlook allows for bolder action.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A larger cut; improving inflation outlook allows for bolder action.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A good start to the year, supporting further policy normalisation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A good start to the year, supporting further policy normalisation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Inflation spikes in January, driven by electricity tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Inflation spikes in January, driven by electricity tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico signals further rate cuts amid disinflation, economic slowdown and easing external pressures.
- The better inflation outlook, however, faces threats from US policy risk and domestic policy noise.
- The Board will likely cut rates to 8% this year, if President Trump doesn’t get in the way.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The first quarterly contraction in more than a year, and the outlook is difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial output beat consensus in December, yet leading indicators point to a weakening trend.
- January’s COPOM minutes reveal a hawkish stance, despite economic activity softening.
- Peru’s inflation remains well on target, paving the way for a final rate cut in Q2, assuming a stable PEN.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Resilience in the face of adversity
- Mexican Peso — Complex economic and external waters
- Colombian Peso — Trade and fiscal issues in the spotlight
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - A growth slowdown looms, as the saving rate rebounds
- EUROZONE - The ECB can’t dodge questions on the neutral rate for much longer
- UK - MPC preview: 25bp cut, guiding to three-to-four reductions in 2025
- CHINA+ - DeepSeek puts Chinese AI on the map; a wake-up call for investors
- EM ASIA - New headwinds amid green shoots; PH won’t do much better in 2025
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The industrial and commerce sectors are driving Chile’s growth, despite persistent issues in services.
- Confidence indicators are on the mend, as activity navigates complex reforms and external pressures.
- The BCCh will have to take a cautious approach amid sluggish employment growth and high inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The recovery continues, and expect further good news in Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: The recovery continues, and expect further good news in Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Presidents Sheinbaum and Trump agreed to pause tariffs, focusing on border-security cooperation.
- BanRep held interest rates at 9.5%, surprising the consensus, citing inflation and Petro-Trump tensions.
- Increasing inflation expectations and high labour costs are further threats, but BanRep will cut again.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold, as uncertainty has increased substantially.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
