- US - How seriously should we take the PMI’s slowdown signal?
- EUROZONE - The establishment in Germany wins one last chance to get it right
- UK - Increased NICs will be manageable for firms and consumers
- CHINA+ - Policy support driving China’s credit growth; property loans cool
- EM ASIA - Not long until BI eases again, especially given Prabowo’s cuts
- LATAM - Mexico’s economic outlook worsens amid external and domestic risks
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Inflation in Brazil rose less than expected in February, despite a spike in electricity tariffs.
- Weakening domestic demand will keep inflation pressures in check, but a range of issues remain.
- Mexico’s external accounts are under control, but both external and domestic issues cloud the outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Underlying inflation pressures remain under control.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Core inflation is under control, allowing Banxico to eye a 50bp rate cut, but trade tensions loom.
- The benign February inflation report reinforces the dovish stance, yet US tariffs could cloud the outlook.
- In Argentina, Mr. Milei’s austerity is keeping the fiscal recovery on track, but trade tensions are rising.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A bad end to the year, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A bad end to the year, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Sales stabilised in December but headwinds persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s GDP contracted in Q4, with weak industrial and agricultural sectors driving the decline.
- The IGAE point to a subpar Q1; rising external— trade—uncertainty weighs heavily on growth.
- Banxico faces a tough balancing act, as inflation risks and policy noise cloud its rate-cut decisions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexican retail sales stagnated in Q4, with high inflation and weak remittances dampening consumption.
- The labour market remains resilient, but weak job creation signals risks to economic momentum.
- Peru’s growth momentum slowed in December, but the outlook is positive, assuming no tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico — Trade, security and tariffs
- Colombia — Leadership on shaky ground
- Chile — Presidential race gathering momentum
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - Core PCE inflation fell in January; further progress to come
- EUROZONE - A truce in Ukraine is no panacea for still-elevated EZ energy prices
- UK - UK growth on the path to some recovery in Q1
- CHINA+ - Policy support driving China’s credit growth; property loans cool
- EM ASIA - BSP’s surprise pause won’t last long; real rates still way too high
- LATAM - Temporary disinflation in Brazil; Mexico’s industrial sector woes
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Brazil’s economic slowdown is deepening and will force the COPOM to end its tightening cycle soon.
- Colombia’s economy gathered speed in Q4, thanks to lower interest rates and despite political noise.
- Leading indicators point to a healthy H1, though some sectors will continue to lag behind the upturn.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BCRP held rates steady; economic activity is gathering speed but disinflation is fully on track.
- The Board has left the door open to further cuts, but external risks and inflation remain key factors.
- Argentina’s inflation is slowing as Mr. Milei’s economic policies yield results, despite lingering issues.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold and maintaining a cautious stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold and maintaining a cautious stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: An ugly finish to 2024, and Q1 2025 will be difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Private consumption in Brazil slowed rapidly in Q4, and weakening fundamentals point to a poor H1.
- Falling consumer confidence and worsening PMIs highlight the continued economic struggles.
- Chile’s BCCh faces inflation pressures, amid speculation on potential interest rate hikes soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Under severe strain, and risks are tilted to the downside.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Modest January pressures offer little relief to a challenging inflation outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Modest January pressures offer little relief to a challenging inflation outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America