Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder) Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Colombia’s economic rebound continues, thanks to falling inflation and resilient services…
- …But other sector performances remain uneven and fragile, and financial volatility poses a growing risk.
- The US–China trade war is a threat to key exports and investment; domestic policy options are narrowing.
- In LatAm, Mexico is by far the most exposed to US tariffs and global economic slowdown risk.
- Commodity-price declines and Chinese weakness add fresh headwinds to regional export growth.
- Currency volatility, weaker remittances and soft capex will drag, but rate cuts offer relief.
- Argentina has begun to dismantle the ‘cepo’, marking an historic shift towards currency normalisation.
- The FX liberalisation narrows gaps, boosts confidence and marks a break from past interventionism.
- Short-term inflation risks prevail, but fiscal and monetary tightening are restoring macro discipline.
- US - Stagnation still lies ahead, as the trade war narrows, but deepens
- EUROZONE - The ECB will cut by 25bp this week but offer little guidance
- UK - Week in review: GDP jumps in February but tariffs will hurt growth
- CHINA+ - Beyond tit-for-tat tariffs: what Xi’s China is really fighting for
- EM ASIA - ‘Factory Asia’—ex-China—won’t break, even if April 9 tariffs return
- LATAM - Brazil battles inflation as activity surprises and fiscal risks linger
- February’s surge in Mexican industrial output likely reflects temporary front-loading to beat tariff risk.
- Long-term nearshoring prospects clash with short-term volatility and tightening financial conditions.
- Global trade tensions and currency volatility drove BCRP’s decision to hold interest rates steady.
- Inflation in Brazil exceeded expectations in March, due mainly to food, as weather and supply shocks persist.
- Activity data point to solid momentum, but industrial output is dropping and leading indicators softening.
- Fiscal risk and BRL weakness complicate COPOM’s task, despite signs of inflation pressures easing ahead.
- In one line: Rising food prices and FX volatility rekindle inflation risks amid slowing domestic demand.
- In one line: Rising food prices and FX volatility rekindle inflation risks amid slowing domestic demand.
- In one line: Solid February bounce, but underlying weakness remains
- In one line: On hold amid global uncertainty, but door remains open to cut.
- In one line: Resilience masks broader risk of a slowdown.
- In one line: MXN depreciation clouds the outlook.
- In one line: MXN depreciation clouds the outlook.
- Mexico’s core inflation is contained, allowing Banxico to cut rates despite mounting global trade uncertainty.
- Job creation improved slightly in March, but the Q1 performance signals deeper structural weakness.
- Brazil’s retail resilience faces mounting pressure from labour-market cooling and tight credit.
- In one line: Sticky due to temporary shocks.
- In one line: Sticky due to temporary shocks.
- Mexican Peso — Exposed to further tariff noise
- Argentinian Peso — Stability or mirage
- Colombian Peso — Under stress from oil and trade shocks
- US - Stagnation in GDP is now our base case, after the tariff madness
- EUROZONE - We think the EZ economy is now entering a technical recession
- UK - GDP likely unchanged in February as manufacturing drags on growth
- CHINA+ - China’s brinkmanship with the US likely aimed at forcing start of talks
- EM ASIA - GDP downgrades and more rate cuts, in the wake of ‘Liberation Day’
- LATAM - LatAm positioned to capitalise on trade shifts and tariff pressures
- Colombia’s disinflation resumed in March, and still-tight financial conditions will help it continue in Q2…
- …But the COP’s sell-off amid trade tensions will limit disinflation’s progress and hurt import costs.
- Chile’s inflation rebounded in March but will slow in Q2, although trade volatility raises new risks.
- A muted tariff hit masks deeper vulnerabilities in trade exposure, export composition and market volatility.
- Central banks will shift gear as the trade shock, falling capex and weak demand cloud the outlook.
- Peru’s disinflation is on track, but the trade war is a threat to the relatively benign outlook.
