- In one line: Manufacturing slumps as mining props up output.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Growth holding up, but momentum set to slow in H2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Growth holding up, but momentum set to slow in H2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Rebound tests fiscal resolve
- Mexican Peso — Rally faces growing headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Currency strength facing fiscal test
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
INCREASED GEOPOLITICAL RISK…
- …FORCING SOME CENTRAL BANKS TO MOVE TO THE SIDELINES
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - Expect soft June payrolls, and yet another set of downward revisions
- EUROZONE - June’s EZ inflation rise will more than reverse in July and August
- UK - Payroll data have gone haywire; job growth is likely improving
- CHINA+ - BoJ to sit tight as stagflation risk rears its ugly head
- EM ASIA - Hoping we’re not jinxing it…we rescind our call for SBV cuts in 2025
- LATAM - Banxico signals slower data-driven easing, as inflation risks persist
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Growth momentum is fading in Chile as temporary drivers wane and consumption stabilises.
- Industrial production is still strong, led by mining, but job-market weakness remains a threat.
- Political polarisation and election uncertainty are rising, posing new risks to policy and capex.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Deep BanRep Board divisions and sticky inflation expectations are delaying further rate cuts.
- Rising fiscal deficits and political noise are under- mining policy credibility and investor confidence.
- Stronger growth gives limited relief as inflation risks and external pressures continue to build.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Banxico cuts again, but rising inflation and a split Board signal a slower, more cautious easing cycle ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Banxico cuts again, but rising inflation and a split Board signal a slower, more cautious easing cycle ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico cut, but one dissenting vote signals caution as inflation expectations drift further from the target.
- Forward guidance was softer; the Board dropped the reference to steady cuts, indicating a possible pause.
- Weak domestic demand supports disinflation; real rates remain well above neutral.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation eases slightly, but risks persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico cuts rates, but rising inflation and Board split signal slower, more cautious easing ahead.
- Disinflation is emerging in Brazil, but policy is still tight amid lingering core pressures and fiscal uncertainty…
- …The Selic will likely be held at 15%, as the BCB sees easing risks outweighing fragile disinflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Benign inflation print supports a cautious Banxico rate cut.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - Consumption looks vulnerable to the looming real-income shock
- EUROZONE - SNB shies away from negative rates for now; EZ PMI holds steady
- UK - Week in review: an August cut to Bank Rate looking more likely
- CHINA+ - Japanese auto exports bear the brunt of US tariff hikes
- EM ASIA - BSP, rightly unfazed by oil prices, leaves door open to two more cuts
- LATAM - COPOM surprises with a final hike and signals a prolonged pause
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The benign inflation report supports a 50bp cut, but a divided Banxico will likely slow the easing pace in H2.
- Services inflation is sticky; housing, wage and food costs are delaying disinflation despite a MXN rebound.
- Private demand and capex lead growth in Argentina, but external imbalances and fiscal risks remain high.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Solid start to Q2, but consumption faces headwinds.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Solid start to Q2, but consumption faces headwinds.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A rebound in manufacturing and services lifted Mexico’s output in April, but momentum is weak.
- Consumption faces pressure from high rates, labour-market stress, and fading support from remittances.
- Colombia’s proposed ballot sidesteps legal processes, raising institutional fears.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The COPOM defied consensus, raising the Selic to 15.00%, and signalled a hawkish extended pause.
- Persistent inflation and deanchored expectations are keeping Brazil’s policy tight despite activity slowing.
- Chile’s BCCh paused again; easing will depend on data amid resilient growth and global headwinds.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
