Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)
- The latest WARN data suggest layoffs remain low, but seasonals will lift initial claims in the next few weeks…
- …And rising continuing claims suggest people who lose their jobs are taking longer to find new positions.
- The jump in December confidence tells us that people like cheaper gas and rising stocks; who knew?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
People really like a rising stock market and falling gas prices
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- U.S. - The Fed is Done; Inflation Undershoot will Trigger Easing in Q1
- EUROZONE- ECB Pushes Back Against H1 Rate-Cut Predictions
- U.K. - MPC Likely to Wait Until May to Cut Rates
- CHINA+ - China’s Recovery Makes Glacial Progress in November
- EM ASIA - Indonesian Imports Will Continue to Outperform Exports Next Year
- LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- FOMC speeches move markets, but they are not a reliable guide to what will happen in three months.
- The surge in November single-family starts is noise, not signal; expect a correction in December.
- People’s uneasiness over the labor market signals a gradually upward trend in unemployment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase signals December payroll growth of about 225K; no sign of further weakening yet.
- Lower rates are beginning to cheer homebuilders, who will gain further market share as home sales rise.
- Single-family construction is rebounding, fitfully, but the multi-family rollover has further to go.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Fed’s forecasts imply remarkable stability in GDP growth and unemployment for the next three years…
- …They are likely to be wrong, and the risks to their numbers for next year are mostly to the downside.
- Homebuilders’ sentiment likely is rebounding as mortgage rates drop, with more to come.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Margins have stopped rising, but yet to start falling, auto dealers excepted.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The gap between the GDI and GDP numbers is unusually large by historic standards...
- ...Undercounting of interest payments means that big upward revisions to GDI are a good bet.
- ISM services signals modest and steady growth, but hints at a hefty bounce in October payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
