Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)
- Core durable goods orders likely remained weak in February, despite mild weather.
- Equipment investment likely rose in Q1 due to a rebound in heavy truck sales, but a full-year drop is still a solid bet.
- The Conference Board’s confidence index likely is still consistent with steady spending growth in March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The March Philly Fed and S&P surveys suggest the manufacturing sector’s downturn is over...
- ...But ongoing inventory rundowns and depressed global demand point to only modest growth ahead.
- New home sales likely rose for a third straight month in February; homebuilders will hang on to market share.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Manufacturers are past the worst, but claims will rise this spring.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Both federal and state/local government are set to make much smaller contributions to growth this year.
- S&L government housing construction will slow, and the surge in payrolls will moderate, likely quite soon.
- February’s jump in existing homes sales will not be sustained; mortgage demand remains very weak.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The FOMC stuck to its December forecast of 75bp easing this year; recent inflation data just a “bump”.
- Chair Powell sees no “cracks” in the labor market; the NFIB and WARN data tell a different story.
- Today’s existing home sales data are wild, but whatever they show, a real recovery is some way off.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The FOMC likely will stick to its December forecast of 75bp easing this year.
- FOMC members’ inflation forecasts probably will be little changed, despite recent data disappointment.
- Homebuilders are gaining market share, keeping single-family construction on an upward track.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- U.S. - The wall between the Fed and the private sector is gone; rates now hurt
- EUROZONE - How resilient is the consensus position on the ECB?
- U.K. - No trigger for change by the MPC; rate cuts still a few months away
- CHINA+ - China’s credit data point to a dull economy; policy uplift yet to come
- EM ASIA - Raising our 2024 CPI forecast for India, and delaying the first RBI cut
- LATAM - Chile’s recovery to continue, along with robust external accounts
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Homebase points to solid March job growth, but likely slower than in February…
- Either way, the outlook for the second quarter is materially weaker; hirings down, firings up.
- Housing construction is set to rise as homebuilders gain market share; is the multi-family slump over?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The shrinking stock of excess savings has exposed most households and small firms to the Fed’s hikes…
- Recent evidence of slowing growth is not yet definitive, but it has our attention.
- Nothing would shift market expectations of faster easing than a clear softening in payrolls; is it coming?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
