Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)
- The Fed is understandably cautious after the “transitory” mess, but its rate forecasts are too cautious.
- We expect the FOMC gradually to lower both its inflation and rate forecasts, starting in March.
- Soaring consumer sentiment, thanks to cheaper gas and rising stocks, signals continued solid spending.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- U.S. - Core PCE prices likely rose at the 2% target pace in Q4, matching Q3
- EUROZONE- Eurozone GDP likely fell in Q4, despite a leap in net exports
- U.K.- Will the MPC cut Bank Rate by more than 25bp at one meeting?
- CHINA+ - China’s credit demand softens, as developers repay debt
- EM ASIA - Only a matter of when, not if, Indian food inflation becomes a huge drag
- LATAM - A Busy Week for LatAm Inflation Watchers; All Good, for Now
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- U.S. - Job Growth is Slowing, but the Fed’s Main Interest is Inflation
- EUROZONE- Rapidly Falling Inflation in Early Q1 Will Prompt an ECB Pivot in March
- U.K.- Households’ Saving Rate Won’t Rise Further in 2024; Spending to Recover
- CHINA+ - China’s Foreign Reserves Continue to Rise, as Yield Pressure Eases
- EM ASIA - Downward CPI Surprises in ASEAN, Paving the Way for H1 Rate Cuts
- LATAM - Growth Still Slowing, Helping to Bring Inflation Down Further
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The labor market is weaker than the headline December jobs numbers, but it’s hardly terrible.
- Either way, the Fed’s policy decisions will be driven more by the inflation numbers than the jobs data.
- The soft December ISM services survey is not definitive, but a repeat in January would get our attention.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- U.S. - Core PCE Inflation Likely will be Below 2% by End-2024
- EUROZONE- Rapidly Falling Inflation in Early Q1 Will Prompt an ECB Pivot in March
- U.K.- Forecast Review: CPI Inflation to Fall to 2% During Q2, Spurring Rate Cuts
- CHINA+ - China’s Property Sector is Barely Making Progress
- EM ASIA - What 2024 Has in Store, and Where We Could Be Widely Off Base
- LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The November PCE report highlights the significant downside risk to the Fed’s inflation forecast.
- The Fed eventually will have little choice to ease by more than their current forecast of 75bp this year.
- Housing and manufacturing activity are near a floor, but any recovery will be slow going.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- U.S. - The Fed is Done; Inflation Undershoot will Trigger Easing in Q1
- EUROZONE- ECB Pushes Back Against H1 Rate-Cut Predictions
- U.K. - MPC Likely to Wait Until May to Cut Rates
- CHINA+ - China’s Recovery Makes Glacial Progress in November
- EM ASIA - Indonesian Imports Will Continue to Outperform Exports Next Year
- LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The Fed’s forecasts imply remarkable stability in GDP growth and unemployment for the next three years…
- …They are likely to be wrong, and the risks to their numbers for next year are mostly to the downside.
- Homebuilders’ sentiment likely is rebounding as mortgage rates drop, with more to come.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- U.S. - The FOMC will Push Back Against Talk of Near-Term Easing
- EUROZONE- The ECB Will Lower its Inflation Forecasts This Week, but How Far?
- U.K. - MPC Unlikely to Endorse the Decline in Rate Expectations Just Yet
- CHINA+ - Japan’s Downward GDP Revision Reflects Weak Private Consumption
- EM ASIA - Pushing Our Call for the First RBI Rate Cut to April
- LATAM - Brazil’s GDP Growth Is Weakening, and the Near-Term Outlook Is Dim
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The most important number Friday was the steep drop in consumers’ inflation expectations…
- …The reported dip in the unemployment rate was much too small to be statistically significant.
- Growth in cyclically-sensitive payrolls is now quite slow, but it’s unlikely to roll over anytime soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- U.S. - Chair Powell’s Optionality Line is Nominal, Not Real; they’re Done
- EUROZONE- The ECB’s Hawkish Stance on Interest Rates is About to Change
- U.K. - BRC and Eurozone Data Suggest CPI Inflation Fell Again in November
- CHINA+ - Chinese Manufacturing Reports Weakening Demand
- EM ASIA - Make What You Will of India’s Absurd Q3 GDP... We’re Not Moved
- LATAM - An Inflection Point, Though Anaemic, for the Chilean Economy
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Chair Powell’s heart is no longer in the optionality story; he repeated it Friday but it’s no longer realistic.
- The continued shrinkage of the M2 money supply is disconcerting, even for non-monetarists.
- The manufacturing sector is in the doldrums, and auto sales are now trending down.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
