Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Global Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)

7 February 2024 Global Monitor Where will bond yields in the Eurozone go in 2024?

  • U.S. - Whatever the truth about January jobs, the outlook for spring is weaker
  • EUROZONE- Presenting the EZ bond market in 2024, assuming a soft landing 
  • U.K.- Multiple rate cuts this year signalled, but not as many as investors expect
  • CHINA+ - Korea trade en route to a healthy recovery on strong WDA growth
  • EM ASIA - Philippines’ consensus-beating Q4 benefited hugely from soft cushions
  • LATAM - Central banks embrace policy normalisation, but with some caveats

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

31 January 2024 Global Monitor Tamed inflation matter most for the Fed

  • U.S. - Inflation is tamed, and that matters more to the Fed than strong growth
  • EUROZONE- GDP data support a dovish shift from the ECB; Spanish CPI not so much
  • U.K.- MPC likely to split the difference with the market
  • CHINA+ - China’s RRR cut is about accommodating fiscal stimulus
  • EM ASIA - Reassuring early Q1 PMIs in India
  • LATAM - A busy but relatively straightforward week for LatAm central banks

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

24 January 2024 Global Monitor When will the ECB start easing?

  • U.S. - The Fed wants to ease slowly, but their forecasts are too cautious 
  • EUROZONE- ECB to push back against market expectations this week
  • U.K.- Consumer price rises still fading quickly enough for a May rate cut 
  • CHINA+ - China’s property sector still looking for the light at the end of the tunnel 
  • EM ASIA - Malaysian GDP to pick up in 2024 on manufacturing sector rebound 
  • LATAM - Brazil’s retail sector resilient in Q4, thanks to Black Friday

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

17 January 2024 Global Monitor Germany dragged the EZ down in Q4

  • U.S. - Core PCE prices likely rose at the 2% target pace in Q4, matching Q3
  • EUROZONE- Eurozone GDP likely fell in Q4, despite a leap in net exports 
  • U.K.- Will the MPC cut Bank Rate by more than 25bp at one meeting? 
  • CHINA+ - China’s credit demand softens, as developers repay debt
  • EM ASIA - Only a matter of when, not if, Indian food inflation becomes a huge drag
  • LATAM - A Busy Week for LatAm Inflation Watchers; All Good, for Now

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

10 January 2024 Global Monitor Inflation trends in LATAM support further monetary policy easing

  • U.S. - Job Growth is Slowing, but the Fed’s Main Interest is Inflation
  • EUROZONE- Rapidly Falling Inflation in Early Q1 Will Prompt an ECB Pivot in March
  • U.K.- Households’ Saving Rate Won’t Rise Further in 2024; Spending to Recover
  • CHINA+ - China’s Foreign Reserves Continue to Rise, as Yield Pressure Eases
  • EM ASIA - Downward CPI Surprises in ASEAN, Paving the Way for H1 Rate Cuts
  • LATAM - Growth Still Slowing, Helping to Bring Inflation Down Further

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

3 January 2024 Global Monitor The Outlook is Improving for the U.K. Consumer

  • U.S. - Core PCE Inflation Likely will be Below 2% by End-2024
  • EUROZONE- Rapidly Falling Inflation in Early Q1 Will Prompt an ECB Pivot in March
  • U.K.- Forecast Review:  CPI Inflation to Fall to 2% During Q2, Spurring Rate Cuts
  • CHINA+ - China’s Property Sector is Barely Making Progress
  • EM ASIA - What 2024 Has in Store, and Where We Could Be Widely Off Base 
  • LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

20 December 2023 Global Monitor Developed Central Banks are too Cautious on Inflation

  • U.S. - The Fed is Done; Inflation Undershoot will Trigger Easing in Q1
  • EUROZONE- ECB Pushes Back Against H1 Rate-Cut Predictions
  • U.K. - MPC Likely to Wait Until May to Cut Rates
  • CHINA+ - China’s Recovery Makes Glacial Progress in November
  • EM ASIA - Indonesian Imports Will Continue to Outperform Exports Next Year
  • LATAM - Milei Starts Working Hard; Chile Rejects the New Constitution

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

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