New mortgage rates still far too high for transactions to recover
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: A solid start to Q2 following a poor Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In on line: A hawkish hold, prioritising inflation anchoring, and restoring credibility.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In on line: A hawkish hold, prioritising inflation anchoring, and restoring credibility.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Falling hirings and rising firings are a toxic combination; job growth looks set to slow sharply.
- May building permits suggest residential construction spending is falling at a 10% annualized pace.
- Existing home sales likely were unchanged in May; Fed rate cuts will facilitate only a sluggish recovery.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s COPOM delivered a hawkish hold, prioritising anchoring inflation, and restoring credibility.
- Chile’s central bank continued gradual rate cuts amid inflation concerns and improving economic activity.
- Both Banks will face an improved global scenario by year-end, broadening their policy manoeuvrability.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts, with potential pauses, amid temporary inflation pressures and economic recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts, with potential pauses, amid temporary inflation pressures and economic recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Rent rises for new tenants have slowed sharply; the feared catch-up in CPI rent inflation is unlikely.
- We expect annualized CPI housing inflation to slow to 3-to-4% over the next few quarters.
- Q2 consumption is on course for a modest 2%, similar to Q1, after May's lacklustre retail sales data.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Lula’s political skills put to the test
- Mexico — Sheinbaum’s judicial reform rattles markets
- Argentina — Milei’s uphill battle, despite approval
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US - The FOMC is too optimistic with its unemployment forecast
- EUROZONE - Markets still underestimating the amount of SNB easing
- UK - MPC preview: leaving open the timing of the first rate cut
- CHINA+ - BoJ commits to cutting JGB-buying, with details to be revealed in July
- EM ASIA - Indian inflation heading into H2: a shift from mundane to manic
- LATAM - Brazil’s economic activity losing steam amid mounting headwinds
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Inflation pressures reassuringly absent, given the surge in shipping costs.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Our Homebase model points to a mere 125K rise in private payrolls in June, the least since October.
- Retail sales likely recovered in May from a subpar April, but the trend looks less robust.
- Industrial production likely picked up in May; surveys have nudged up and hours worked have risen.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s economic activity stalled in April, and down-side risks are intensifying, due mainly to the floods.
- The COPOM is likely to pause its easing this week, amid inflation concerns and despite faltering growth.
- Peru’s economy is rebounding in Q2, boosted by primary sectors, and the outlook remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A soft start to Q2, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A soft start to Q2, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold, as core inflation remains sticky.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold, as core inflation remains sticky.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
