Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)

22 Sept 2021 Brace for the Warning that Tapering is Coming in November

The FOMC and Chair Powell appear prepared to signal that tapering will start in December. Expect more dots for a 2022 rate hike, but the median forecast likely will...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, August 2021

In one line: Boosted by a rebound in multi-family in the Northeast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Datanotes

21 Sept 2021 Productivity Prospects Revisited: Strong Capex Kicks-in Quickly

Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt. A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

US Datanote: U.S. NAHB Homebuilder Survey, September 2021

In one line: A modest pleasant surprise, but no return to the peaks is in the cards.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Datanotes

20 Sept 2021 A Tapering Signal, but not a Formal Announcement, from the Fed?

The macro case for tapering now is strong, but it ig- nores the wider, and more problematic, context. We expect the Fed to signal that tapering likely will start in November,...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

17 Sept 2021 August Retail Sales Signal Resilience in the Face of Delta

Technicalities flatter August retail sales, but the upside surprise is real; an echo of earlier Covid-era patterns. States suffering most from the Delta wave have rela- tively...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

US Datanote: Weekly Jobless Claims; Philly Fed Survey, September 2021

In one line: Manufacturing in the Northeast is outperforming; don't worry about claims.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Datanotes

16 Sept 2021 Delta and Chip Shortages Likely Hit August Retail Sales

Another soft retail sales report today seems inevitable, thanks to Delta, with more pain likely in September. Expect a rebound in jobless claims from last week's cycle low,...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

Global Economic Monitor 15 Sept 2021

U.S. - Delta Hit August Jobs Hard, and the Rebound willTake Time EUROZONE - A V-shaped Recovery in the EZ Economy in Now in Sight U.K. - Why is the U.K.'s Recovery Still Lagging...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)Global

15 Sept 2021 The Surge is Over, but Don't Expect Every Core CPI to Look Like August's

Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months... ...But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

14 Sept 2021 Core CPI Constrained Again as Used Cars, Lodging Components Soften

The run of huge gains in the core CPI is over; the big- gest change is the end of the surge in used car prices. Hotel room rates and airline fares likely fell last month too,...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

13 Sept 2021 Faster Productivity Growth Would Fix Almost Everything; Odds are Good

The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate... ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

September 2021 - U.S. Economic Chartbook

Delta Has Peaked, And The Economy Will Rebound....But The Wave Has Killed Q3 Consumption

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Chartbook

9 Sept 2021 Delta is Peaking; Real-Time Data to Start Rising Again by End-Month

The elevated quits rate shows that people are much more willing to switch jobs than usual... ...But wage gains for job-switchers are in line with previous experience; no...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

10 Sept 2021 Core PPI Inflation is Still Rising, but Monthly Gains Look Set to Slow

Core PPI inflation likely hit a new high in August, but the month-to-month increases are set to slow. Much of the recent surge has been due to widening margins, especially in...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

9 Sept 2021 Delta is Peaking, Real-Time Data to Start Rising Again by End-Month

The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet. Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

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