Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, April 2025

In one line: Surprisingly strong, but the details are volatile.

6 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor The ECB delivers a hawkish cut; is this it for the easing cycle?

• The ECB cut the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.0%, as expected, but Ms. Lagarde signalled this is it. 
• We still see a final 25bp cut, to 1.75%—now in September—but we’re less certain than before. 
• The ECB’s new forecasts are very dovish on inflation and likely will have to be revised up in due course.

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation & Unemployment, Eurozone, May/April

In one line: All set for doves to take charge of ECB policy over the summer. 

5 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor Is a butterfly flapping its wings in Japan's bond markets?

• EZ sovereigns have been largely spared in the global bond-market rout, but French bonds remain fragile. 
• Foreigners own more than half of government bonds in France, with Japanese savings a key swing factor. 
• We think Japan owns around €165B-worth of French government bonds, or 5% of French GDP.

4 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor Soft inflation data signal dovish ECB and SNB meetings in June

• Inflation in both the EZ and Switzerland fell below the respective central-bank targets in May. 
• In the EZ, the decline solidifies the need for a rate cut this month, and we look for another one in Q3.
• In Switzerland, deflation is likely to become a mainstay, so brace for a 50bp rate cut from the SNB.

PM Datatnote: EZ Money Supply and Detailed Q1 GDP in Italy

In one line: Upturn in money supply continues; Italian GDP on a solid footing in Q1.

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, May 2025

In one line: Strong, but remember difference in base effects in the CPI and HICP. 

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, April 2025

In one line: Consumption growth will slow in Q2. 

May 2025 - EZ Economic Chartbook

A TENSE MONTH OF EU-US TRADE NEGOTIATIONS LIES AHEAD...

• ...WE STILL SEE UNCERTAINTY WEIGHING ON GROWTH