Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, January 2025

In one line: Ouch. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, January 2025

In one line: Another data point in favour of ECB hawks.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 March 2025 Eurozone Monitor "Whatever it takes" in Germany; SNB easing coming to an end

• Germany has fired a fiscal bazooka, which won’t go unnoticed by the ECB today. 
• Swiss inflation fell further in February, to 0.3%; we think this is a trough, for now. 
• We expect the SNB to cut by 25bp later this month, marking the final reduction in this easing cycle.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 March 2025 Eurozone Monitor The EU goes big on defence...or does it? More is needed, and soon

• The EU’s first defence package contains only a small element of joint loans; more will be needed soon. 
• EZ unemployment remains pinned at a record low, though we think it will start rising soon, slowly. 
• Markets see tariff risks as dovish for ECB policy, but the economic data are pulling in the other direction.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 March 2025 Eurozone Monitor ECB hawks have a strong case for arguing this week's cut is the last

• The ECB will cut its policy rates by 25bp, but the argument for further easing is now much tougher. 
• February inflation data mean the ECB’s forecast for Q2 inflation at 2.1% is now a Hail Mary. 
• ECB doves will focus on downside risks to growth and employment from tariffs; they have a point.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, February 2025

In one line: Consistent with a below-consensus EZ print on Monday.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, February

In one line: Consistent with the national CPI undershooting the consensus.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: Advance Inflation & INSEE Consumers' Spending, France, Feb/Jan

In one line: Inflation pulled lower by energy, but the core softened too; setback in spending after a strong finish to 2024.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, January 2025

In one line: On track for a slowdown in Q1. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

ESI, Eurozone, February 2025

In one line: Better than the PMI. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, January 2025

In one line: Upturns in real M1 growth and credit impulse continue.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, February 2025

In one line:  Decent headline, but rising unemployment fears is a red flag. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

February 2025 - EZ Economic Chartbook

RISKS TO OUR HAWKISH ECB CALL ARE FOR LESS EASING...

• ...ASSUMING ONLY SMALL US TRADE TARIFF INCREASES

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q4-24

In one line: Stung by plunge in net exports; consumption is now growing, but weakly.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone