In one line: Early days, but it looks like a decline in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- An ECB pivot is underway; it will be confirmed at next week’s policy meeting, and by the new forecasts.
- The January HICP report and wage data remain risks to our call for a first rate cut in March.
- Early data from France and Spain suggest euro area manufacturing slowed further at the start of Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation fell in November and has now been in line with the SNB’s target for six months...
- ...It will likely slide further in H1 next year, after a probable small base-effects driven rise in December.
- Coupled with weak growth, the stars should align for the SNB to start cutting its key rate by March.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A modest rise, but still consistent with upside risks for the PMI.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Net exports in goods seem on track for a rise in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Depressed, but the second derivative is turning.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Depressed, but the second derivative is turning.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ manufacturing PMIs suggest that industrial production remains on track for a decline in Q4.
- Manufacturing employment is now falling steadily; will it pull the broader labour market down?
- It’s early days, but we’re starting to feel excited about better-looking manufacturing surveys in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: ECB hawks are about to eat humble pie.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: ECB hawks are about to eat humble pie.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German unemployment is rising, but employment growth is resilient.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Downside risks to EZ inflation data.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A solid start to Q4; a sign of more to come?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation fell sharply in November, widening the gap between the reality and the ECB’s forecasts.
- January HICP is key for the 2024 inflation outlook; we look for a return to normal in m/m pricing.
- The ECB’s hawkish facade will soon crack; look out for a shift in messaging at the December meeting.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Services confidence is holding up; employment expectations fell further.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Better for consumers and manufacturing, but service confidence fell further.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in Germany and Spain undershot consensus in November; will EZ HICP do the same?
- German inflation will snap back in December due to base effects in energy; the core is falling rapidly.
- Core inflation in Spain declined sharply in November, and the downturn has further to run.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
THE EZ ECONOMY IS SLIPPING INTO RECESSION...
- ...WHEN WILL THE ECB’S MESSAGE SHIFT?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Solid headline, but unemployment fears are rising.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Depressed, despite an improving outlook for real income growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
