Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Boosted by major orders in aircraft; core orders were weak.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP in Spain grew by 2.5% last year, more than in any of the other major EZ economies.
- This year, quarter-to-quarter growth will remain solid, such that GDP rises by 2%.
- German industrial orders soared in December but they were skewed by major orders mainly in aircraft.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB’s policy rate is 100-to-150bp too tight; it will align with two-year yields by the end of the year.
- We see near-term downside risk to Bund yields but then look for bear-steepening in H2.
- Our forecasts for the bond markets assume a soft landing in the economy; what if we’re wrong?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italian GDP rose more than we expected in Q4, forcing us to raise our forecasts for this year...
- ...Consumption will drive up GDP, which we now think will rise by 0.8% this year, the same as in 2023.
- A correction in investment is coming; a key downside risk is that it is bigger and quicker than we expect.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Not enough for a rate cut in March; but April is still on.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Not enough for a rate cut in March; but April is still on.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Lingering votes to hike Bank Rate distract from most members’ endorsement of rate cuts this year...
- ...Two-year-ahead inflation is forecast nearer 2% under market rates than constant rates; upside skew has gone.
- We still expect the first 25bp cut to come in May, but the risks remain tilted towards a later commencement.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still consistent with a fall in the ECB’s 2024 inflation forecasts in March.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation likely fell by 0.2pp in January, to 2.7%, with the core rate down 0.3pp, to 3.1%.
- The ECB remains on track to downgrade its 2024 inflation forecasts in March, by a lot.
- German retail sales plunged, again, in Q4; the fall in jobless claims in January is likely a blip.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- This week’s January inflation data will be key for the ECB’s decisions and communication in H1 2024.
- We look for a downside surprise in the EZ, but the January report is a wildcard; anything can happen.
- EZ GDP likely fell in Q4—confirming a recession— worse than the ECB predicted in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Money data, adjusted for savings, suggest a Q1 recovery in EZ GDP is still on the cards...
- ...Growth in bank lending, however, suggests the recovery will be tepid, at best.
- Consumer confidence figures imply the same, as German sentiment is hurt by higher taxes.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB left all its policy settings unchanged yesterday, as everyone expected it to.
- President Lagarde stuck to the line that a spring rate cut is unlikely but didn’t explicitly push back on it...
- ...Data next week will, we think, give the Bank the confidence it needs to cut rates first in March.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
THE ECB IS DONE HIKING; WHEN WILL IT CUT?
- ...WE THINK EASING WILL BEGIN IN MARCH
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- This week the ECB will continue to push back against expectations of a rate cut in the first half of 2024...
- ...But the central bank is now happy to underwrite the consensus position of a rate cut by summer.
- We still see the ECB cutting by March, as January and February HICP surprise to the downside.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A raft of collective wage agreements will be renewed this year, and the ECB is watching closely.
- If the ECB waits until it has a full overview, rate cuts will be delayed, even beyond June.
- We still see a rate cut in March as inflation comes down much faster than the central bank expects.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Pulled lower by a widening primary income deficit.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
