Pantheon Publications

5 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite

Mining saved Brazil’s GDP from an outright fall, but weak consumption highlights the fragile backdrop…

…Services momentum is fading while industry is steady, reinforcing a commodity-heavy growth profile.

Consumption is improving, but persistent capex weakness keeps Mexico’s recovery on rocky ground.

4 December 2025 LatAm Monitor FX Update LatAm currency gains amid rising 2026 risks

• Brazilian Real — Strong flows and shifting rate expectations
• Mexican Peso — Rebounding, but volatility persists
• Chilean Peso — Election relief and external tailwinds

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, October, 2025

• In one line: Industrial recovery stalls again.

3 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's industrial weakness deepens, strengthening case for BCB easing

• Industrial output in Brazil disappointed across most categories, as tight financial conditions bite…
• …The PMI signals to ongoing weakness, though sentiment has steadied even as firms trim production.
• Benign price dynamics in Peru leave room for a final rate cut, potentially at next week’s meeting.

2 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile enters Q4 with firmer growth; political clarity will boost confidence

• The mining rebound and resilient domestic demand lift activity in Chile; the near-term outlook is benign…
• …Improving sentiment and rising capex point to firmer momentum heading into early 2026.
• Political clarity and expectations of fiscal discipline under a Kast presidency reinforce investor confidence.

November 2025 - Latin America Chartbook

LATAM ECONOMY SLOWS AS DOMESTIC DEMAND SOFTENS

• POLITICAL NOISE AND EXTERNAL UNCERTAINTY DOMINATE

1 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation eases further; Copom likely to cut rates in January

• Disinflation in Brazil is broadening across goods and services, as supply conditions remain favourable.
• A strong BRL, cooling demand, and easing core pressures will push headline inflation lower in Q1.
• Copom signals patience but improving data support the case for a cautious rate-cutting cycle soon.